The decline of our hobby?

[Patrick_Nevin]

I think petrol prices probably have more of an effect than any decline in the hobby, certainly here in the UK, petrol prices have put the kybosh on anything other than essential travel for many people.

Yet last year there was an easy mile of gridlock before IPMS ScaleModelWorld in Telford... That was new from the previous three years I've attended: plenty of people of all ages there.

[Rick in Maine]

Mr. Steve has hit on the perfect word..."evolution." The hobby ain't near dead yet, but it sure is evolving. Technology has brought us a whole new world of communications. Likewise, to our hobby it has brought unprecedented detail, variety of kits and so much more.

I think the kids aren't write-offs yet. My students' perception of $50 reminds me of my perception of $10 many moons ago. If anything, kids might be more open to today's hobby prices than I am. They've never known top-of-the-line kits for less than $15, or jars of paint for less than a $1, etc. Their starting point is at a much higher $$$$-level than mine. Age does that to ya!

IPMS-USA is still viable for all ages. They still have the occasional SNAFUs, just as they did 40+ years ago. But, for the most part, they seem to understand this evolution quite well and do a super job with a small, dedicated cadre of volunteers.

I'm still in. I see kids still in. We're just having an evolution.

Thanks for the right words, Steve.

Rick in Down East Maine

[Expat Tomcat]

Change is inevitable, so evolution is probably the most apt term. At our recent show here in Indy there were about 200 or so entries and about 40 vendors. Probably about 4-500 people in attendance, but only about 10 kids and one of them was mine. My 10 y.o. son walked out of there with 3 kits only one of which he bought, the other two were given to him by vendors who didn't want to have to load them and take them home. The kit he paid for retails for $30, he paid $10 for it. One of the two given to him was a Hasegawa 1/48 weapons set A, not a cheap gift. He cleaned up!

But my point here is that not enough children are being TAUGHT patience and being brought into our hobby. Somethings are simply not produced in a microwaved, shake and bake, instant gratification is not fast enough world. As we all know modeling isn't one of those things. I tell my son all the time this is not an instant gratification hobby. Even the shake and bake, Snap-Tite kits take SOME time. In our electronic, information age world, patience is a dying character trait.

There will be another evolution, and another and another. Eventually given enough time, we'll have computer aided 3D modeling machines and all the work will be will be in writing the code it takes to guide the laser that mills the model out of a solid block of plastic. Well, thats ONE possibility anyway.

Sure, there will be market trends and demographic trends that influence what kits get made and therefore what we build. We have to make sure our hobby has a future, the only way to truly ensure that is to make sure the money keeps flowing into the hobby. Money is truly what drives it all outside us, the end user. Our money and that of our kids will either evolve the hobby or kill it. When there's no more money to be made in our hobby they'll stop making kits and the truest of us will make our models from bits of plastic bottlecaps and scraps of wire and wood.

[WymanV]

Stumbled upon a local sad story-woman's husband bails on her & the kids, leaving them nothing but the bills. Gave her 8 or 9 year old son a couple of models from the stash that I was never going to build. I heard he knew what the planes were and all about the kit manufacturers and couldn't wait to build them.

My 10 year old nephew builds too. And my "bestest cousin" is getting back into the hobby after a 30+ year break. And his son is getting into it too.

I still have faith.

Ken

[SBARC]

I just had a weird thought......I wonder if anyone will come up with a game to simulate the experience of building and painting a virtual model? You would have the "glue" the virtual parts and then decal and airbrush it virtually and then do some weathering. hummm....

Kids today have plenty of patience. I've watched my daughter play her video games for hours on end. I was born in 1960.......15 years after WW2. WW2 was all around me......parents lived through it and most Dad's at the time were involved in it. Between movies and games that simulated battle..........it was a childhood very much connected with reliving historical events. Building models was a simple progression. As an adult I reentered the hobby because I wanted to have scale representation of items I knew I would never own.

Somewhere along the way kids have evolved away from scale modelling.....or maybe the hobby has evolved away from kids. Long gone are the days when a kid could build a kit in an hour or two and his parents could afford a few cheap kits each week. Now a days kits are quite complicated with many more parts and they are more expensive. I would guess quite a few parents don't introduce their kids to this hobby due to the price of kits.......video games are much cheaper and provide many more hours of distraction than a model kit would.....and at a much lower price. Plus video games can be multi-player thus giving the kid a form of interaction.......model building is very solitary in general and requires parent involvment if the kit is beyond the child's skill level. And most parents are too busy/tired or lazy to put in the effort needed to guide a kid through a kit. Snap tite kits are fine......but there is very few of them and in general the hobby is now a bunch of highly price complicated model kits........prices will discourage parents from getting their kid involved in a hobby like this.

[g0_command0]

Alot of my younger cousins are into gundams and stuff so i guess model building isnt dead

[GreyGhost]

One thing is availability ...

Back when I was a kid, a lot of my model kit purchases were at Kmart, Zody's, Thrifty Drug, Ralph's Supermarket, etc ...

Gregg

[big fatty]

+1

What STORM said is the TRUTH!

[phantom]

I think its because the "nats" are never in Canada.

Have it in Toronto or better yet Tonys museum in Hamilton!!!!!!!

[Pep]

I like what hobby boss did with their easy build kits, not as brainless as snap tights but easy enouh for a kid to build. Those things sell like hotcakes at my LHS. I wonder if the situation is similar in Asia and Europe as it is here with the kids and the hobby.

[Robertson]

But back then, there were only 1/100 the number of kits and options to build. That number is bogus because of that fact alone.

No, your argument doesn't hold: Back then there were many major new releases every week or every month, and the number of major brands was probably greater. You may not be aware of this, but the vast majority of a kit's sale are done in the first year after release, so it is in the new releases, and their initial production runs, that the state of the hobby can be determined...

The large numbers of very old kits releases still on Hobby Shoppe shelves, and even online, is a clear sign the new releases have not replaced was what done in the heydays of modelling... Tamigawa new releases have slowed down noticeably in recent years, and Hasegawa has dropped out of a few branches entirely.

The decline of modelling among the youth is largely due, I think, to permissive child raising practices which do not supervise and guide a child's interest towards culturally enriching and productive activities. A lack of interest in reality outside of immediate gratification is pretty evident... Reading as a whole in newer generations is in decline as well, which the Harry Potter book fad is hardly evidence to the contrary...

I think this has a lot to do with late 20th Century educational theories, and the fruits they are now bringing.

R. Davies

[VADM Fangschleister]

I just had a weird thought......I wonder if anyone will come up with a game to simulate the experience of building and painting a virtual model? You would have the "glue" the virtual parts and then decal and airbrush it virtually and then do some weathering. hummm....

There's already something to that effect, with an added bonus. It's called "X-Plane" and has an almost religious following. You can draw, build and then actually FLY the creation you made all on the computer and paint it as well. However, some knowledge of aerodynamics is pretty much required because if you just try to slap something together, you may be disappointed. Many aeronautical firms actually use the program to do design feasibility studies.

For me, it was fun to play with and take all the resources I had, with all the technical data for weights and sizes and I "built and flew" an F-104, the B-58, the F-100, and many many more. I learned a great deal by doing it. You can change wing designs almost on a whim and compare them for performance, etc. Supersonic flight is possible but can be challenging, using area-rule, etc. For giggles I drew an airplane with a regular fuselage without area rule and it wouldn't go supersonic but pinching the waist at the right places made the difference.

The program is reasonably priced and though it's a paradigm shift from 3D miniature-building, the bonus of flying it is really cool. Tweaking it from flight to flight to refine the design is also fun. You can change the CG, the thrust, the weight, etc, etc.

Edited May 21, 2011 by VADM Fangschleister

[MattC]

It's called "X-Plane" and has an almost religious following

Oddly enough, I have used X-plane for proof of concept for own design RC stuff before I commit to the cost of prototypes.

Works pretty well although there are some oddball effects in there, I don't think it likes playing with low Re. numbers very much.

Fun tool to work with though.

[shinai]

I think another thing about doing models in general is that as a kid (between 10-14) I did a lot of models with tube glue, rattle canes, and little bottles of testors. As I got older, I just got into other things like sports, after school job, and girls. 20 years later I returned back to the hobby because I remember as a kid how much fun I had making the models I did. I think that many kids enjoy models, out grow them, and then later in life return back to the hobby. But, I also think that video games and other things are more attractive them doing models. I know as a kid I did a kit in like 3 days, now I spend months working on them slowly and surely.

As someone else posted, I remember buying most of my model supplies at Thrifty Drug and Kmart. Now I get them at LHS and online retailers. Surprising today at Wal-mart I did not see one model kit there. I think the hobby has just evolved and that many online retailers are offering a variety of products that may have been difficult to obtain. The problem is I think that the decline of the hobby or appearance of it is probably because there is less exposure in brick and mortar stores and so people, particularly kids, do not get interested in doing models.

But, that is just my opinion - I could be wrong.

[MattC]

As someone else posted, I remember buying most of my model supplies at Thrifty Drug and Kmart

Thats a good point, when I started modelling as a kid, the local newsagent stocked a reasonable (for me anyway) range of kits.

Yes, they were mostly matchbox, yes, I didn't make a good job of any of them, but I knew they were there, I could afford them with a few weeks paper round money, bash them together and hang them on the ceiling and feel very proud. So as I got older, I was already "in" the hobby.

Nowadays, unless kids have a parent who is in the hobby, they wouldn't even know that plastic kits existed. They won't casually walk into a hobby shop and pick one up, nor will they casually buy kits online.

My son (who is 7) just finished building a MiG 3 from the RoG kit and thoroughly enjoyed it, he did the whole thing apart from a little help from me with the canopy framing, decals and outlining the camo pattern for him to fill in.

He took it to school for a "show and tell" and his friends were completely agog that he actually MADE it, rather than buying it as a ready made toy. So, in that light, I am thinking of approaching the school with the aim of running an after school modelling club, as these kids will probably lap it up if only given the chance to do so.

Likewise with flying models, I grew up on a diet of Airfix & Matchbox in styrene, and Guillows and Keil Kraft in balsa & tissue. All these things were easily and cheaply available. Look for a flying model kit in anything but a specialist shop now, and all you'll find are plastic and foam "toys" which don't perform and thus don't inspire.

A local shop which used to stock some plastic kits recently stopped doing so. When I asked why, I was told that;

"The management of the company don't think that children want to make their own toys these days"

If only they could see the look on a childs face who has actually produced something by their own hands. Kids haven't changed, whats changed is that their world is being limited for them. They buy (or have bought) ready made toys and other junk, not because they want to, but because thats all they are shown.

Like TV really, viewing figures for crass, pointless rubbish are high because there is nothing BUT crass pointless rubbish to watch.

[Litvyak]

I think there are a number of factors at work here.

I'm 35, and from what I've found, I'm certainly in the younger end of the modelling hobby, whatever the subject. I'm also involved in the railway hobby, so most of my observations will come from there, but I think generally they're valid across the board. I haven't been to any serious aircraft (or armour or car) modelling meets, so I don't know if there's anything similar, but at many of the more general-appeal train shows I've been to, there's usually a section of varying size designed to appeal to kids (most of this revolves around Thomas the Tank Engine, which I personally don't much like EXCEPT for the thought that if it helps develop an interest in trains and modelling amongst kids, then I'm all for it).

It's interesting to note the difference in ages you see at the general-interest shows and the more niche shows, such as the Railway Prototype Modelling shows (for those who don't know, RPM is a subsection of the model railway hobby that strives for hyperaccuracy - as accurate as possible in terms of the model rolling stock, as accurate as possible in terms of train composition (going as far as some people using actual consist lists from the railway they model to determine what cars by road number were in a given train), in terms of operations (running their layout according to real timetables) and in terms of setting and scenery (building their layouts such that towns, stations and track arrangements match the prototype as closely as possible).

The interesting bit there is that the average crowd is /much/ older at the general interest shows than at the RPM shows. Most of the RPM crowd falls into the 20-50 range, while the 50+ folk are mostly at the general-interest shows. There's some, but I don't think much, cross-pollination, and the "old guys" complain about how few young people there are at their shows year after year.

Certainly it's not a question of attention span or patience, since much of what the post-1990 generation does with their computers requires both. But exposure is a part of it - they're the first generation to grow up having been exposed to computers all around them, since birth. I think I'm part of the last generation /not/ to have done so: in grade one, we were once shown a computer, put in the classroom for a couple days so everyone could have half an hour at it. I didn't see another computer until grade 4, in 1986, when my dad bought me one. What we /were/ exposed a lot to in grades 2, 3 and 4 was the library, and the wonders of reading. And that in turn fed my interest in trains and airplanes, which ultimately led to modelling, after a visit to a school-friend's house whose father was into modelling.

So, I think the key is exposure, /especially/ nowadays when there's simply far too much information bombarding us on every subject from Aardvark to Zymurgy whether we want it or not, so it's much too easy to switch the brain into the noise-filter mode. So I think if you expose kids to the modelling hobby, get the point across to them that it's a lot of fun, they'll bite. As one example, with repeated exposure to modelling through various people, a friend's 14 year old sister (no joke!) got into building, too (cars, in her case). When I asked what made her decide, she explained how she saw us all having fun and sharing something fun within that group of friends, and also that she liked the idea of the models being /real/ as opposed to virtual things existing only as electrons. Now, to be sure, she's just like every other girl of her generation, with their cellphones and texting and whatnot, but she does turn it off now and again to build a model car. I'm sure that this example can be reproduced with other kids!

[MattC]

also that she liked the idea of the models being /real/ as opposed to virtual things existing only as electrons

To quote my son when he finished his build;

"I like this, because I made it myself and I can hang it up and pretend its my wingman when I'm in bed"

Ok, so he knows what a wingman is because his dad is an aviation nut and has filled his head with flying things since he was born, but nonetheless, its something tangible he can touch, see, feel and play imaginary games with. It doesn't run out of batteries, it doesn't have limitations in what his imagination can do with it, its HIS, HE made it, and to him, its one of the most precious things he owns.

Give kids a chance to make something for themselves, to use their own imagination, and they will thrive on it. Little wonder people complain about "kids these days" when the very notion of imaginative play and creativity is utterly alien to them.

[ssculptor]

Wait a minute guys. We have two hobbies here. There is the hobby of making models to enter into IPMS contests and there is the hobby of making models for the simple fun and pleasure of it. As I see it these are two different things.

As an example, I build models simply for the fun, relaxation and pleasure of it. I do not make models to enter contests. I see no reason to do such a thing. So I go to IPMS shows to see what has been built by others and to see if I can scarf up some models for my stash. The advantage of buying at the shows over buying by mail or from eBay is that I do not have to pay for shipping. Since I go prepared to buy heavy the savings in postage well outweighs the cost of the gas to get there and back. So, for me, gas prices do not enter into the equation. But if I were to buy only a model or two then I would stick to buying off the forums and from eBay and save the gas.

In the past year I have been cutting back on my buying because of the recession. I work in a non-essential area of manufacturing and business is way down for luxuries. Thus my income has suffered and I have no extra money for buying goodies. So there is no reason to spend the gas money to go see things I cannot afford. I have missed several local shows in the past six months and will probably miss a lot more, at least until business picks up.

So we have the problem of economics: the recession and the high gas prices both contribute to the lack of interest in some of these shows.

I do NOT think the hobby of model building is in any danger simply because interest in these shows is waning. I also go to model railroad shows and toy/model shows within 50 miles of my home in Southwest Connecticut USA. Interest in these shows too, has waning also in the past two years. In some cases only half the tables are rented as compared to two-three years ago.

I think the problem of lowering show attendance is because of the rise of eBay. A number of dealers have stopped renting tables at the shows because they can sell more items at less cost and trouble than at the six to twelve shows they normally do each year. In years past I used to sell at these shows and the amount of effort, time and trouble required to pack, drive, unpack and set up, stand there like an idiot all day, then repack, drive back home and unpack is NOT worth it. I found I could sell more on eBay without ever leaving my home. Yes, there was the social interaction of the shows which I missed, but not enough to do all that work and then realize that all I did was break even.

So, model shows are NOT the hobby. Entering these little contests appeals to a relatively small number of people who make models. Model making is a very strong urge in many humans and it has been this way for many thousands of years of human history. EBay, the recession and the high gas prices have all contributed to the decline of model shows. Maybe if the economy recovers and gas prices go back down a bit then attendance will improve. Maybe not. So what?

Shows are only a small part of model making and the hobby will continue very well without these meets.

By the way, plastic model shows really do not provide all that much social interaction. Modelers have clubs or small groups of like minded fellows and they get together at frequent intervals.

Other hobbies seem to have clubs where the guys get together once a month for the social interaction needed by us humans. For example, when I was in flying models we had a club that met once a month at one of the members homes and we got together every weekend at the field to fly our models. We would have never needed shows as we had more than enough social interaction. I have a friend today who is still in flying models and the situation has not changed.

I am also in model railroading and our club meets once a month at members homes. At times we get together to help out a fellow member with building his layout. With model railroading I still attend the few show that are in the state, maybe six a year. I go there to buy used trains as I see no reason to buy new items when I have so much already. It is good fun to kit-bash the used trains into types I want.

So, gentlemen, aside from the competition of the contests, what do we need shows for anyway?

Stephen

[eharrold44]

I totally agree with what Shinai said, and I can speak to it. I'm 27, and I'm just getting back into modeling. Part of the reason why I'm doing it is that I have a lot of fond memories of building kits as a kid, and that's partly where the problem lies. There aren't as many widely available, cheap gateway options for kids nowadays, so fewer younger people are getting an early introduction to the hobby. I know I probably wouldn't be interested in it the way I am now if I hadn't spent a lot of my allowance money on Revellogram cheapies at Wal-Mart back in the day. You used to be able to buy a Phantom or an F-16 at any old store; then they started to only carry snap-together models. Then it was pre-painted snap-together models. Now, nothing. It's been years since I've seen a regular old plastic model kit in a Wal-Mart. It's definitely not as mainstream as it used to be.

On the positive side, there's still a ton of beautiful work being done around the world. There are many magazines and publications. There's a pretty healthy garage industry to support the hobby, and plenty of companies are still putting out great plastic kits- even if the volume of new releases has dwindled over time. You can still get Revell/Academy/Italeri/etc. cheapies, even if you have to go to specialized hobby stores to find them. There are products for any budget, from $100+ super-detailed ship kits to $10 aircraft. The hobby isn't going anywhere, even if the demographics shift over time.

[Bonehammer73]

It isn't dying at all. If it were, the big manufacturers would be releasing less kits whilst the small one would be going out of buiness.

Vince

Manufacturers stay in business because modelers buy kits... shows get attendance because modelers build kits... and the figures are not necessarily the same.

[Ishthe47guy]

Just attended the IPMS North Central Texas show (Dallas half of the DFW area), & had a blast.

The majority of the attendees were older adults, but there were several kids in attendance. My club has taken an active stance in the continuation of the hobby by having a make & take, & getting Boy Scout troops involved. I wanted to bring my 11 yr old daughter, but her mom grounded her (only one week to the end of the school year, kids will act up).

There were a good amount of vendors there, but what I really picked up on is the number of older modelers that had tables & were selling off kits from their personal stash. Sign of the economy, lack of time to build, what have you. Doggone thing was I saw myself doing that within the next 15-20 years or so.

I did enjoy the models display. There are some in-freakin'-credible modelers out there. Makes me want to go home & build something, or throw out the stash. I took over 500 pics this year, even though I feel the number of entries was down this year. The numbers will be out at the next meeting, I'm sure.

These shows are also such a great social get together. Could be a Texas geography thing, but you've got 3 good size cities within Texas in a 4 hour drive window from Dallas, & those cities all have healthy IPMS chapters, so there were several day trippers there. I spent most of the day just chatting with all the folks I know or that I only see at these things.

[madmike]

I have old model mags from the early 70's that talk about the decline of our hobby.

WASMEx the West Australian show I am involved with fluctuates attendance wise year to year. But in reality it is still a great experience and the number of contest entries last year was excellent.

I will be in Melbourne for Model Expo, so it will be interesting to see the changes if any from last year.

[vince14]

Manufacturers stay in business because modelers buy kits... shows get attendance because modelers build kits... and the figures are not necessarily the same.

In which case the the question is not about the decline of the hobby, more the decline of the model show.

[Robertson]

The hobby will never die off completely, but when the the current "old" fifty plus generation dies off, it is hard to imagine what will be left...

Look at your local club's attendance by people younger than 35-40 (a modest benchmark): That tells you how small it will get...

Except for 1/32 releases, the rate of new mainstream relases is way down and will continue to decline, the phenomenon eventually reaching 1/32 scale as well, since it is not a versatile scale that can expand into larger non-fighter types...

Fifty years from now, a large part of the non-1/72 Spitfire builds will still be the current Tamiya 1/32 scale Spitfire Mk IX... Sure, there will be a 1/32 scale Barracudas or Do-335s as well by then, and people will point to that as an example of how rich this hobby is compared to the old days...

R. D.

[vince14]

Look at your local club's attendance by people younger than 35-40 (a modest benchmark): That tells you how small it will get...

You're assuming the demographic of the model club is the same as the hobby as a whole. I've been modelling for close to 35 years now, and I've never set foot in a model club, yet if I go to my local toy shop (as opposed to model shop) there are still young kids looking at and buying model kits.

the rate of new mainstream relases is way down and will continue to decline

As compared to when? Six months ago? Last year? Twenty years ago?

Fifty years from now, a large part of the non-1/72 Spitfire builds will still be the current Tamiya 1/32 scale Spitfire Mk IX

So you're saying that a fifty year old kit will still be considered 'top flight' in 2061? How many kits available today that are of that age (i.e. most of the Airfix back catalogue) are considered to be the best available for that paticular aircraft, when compared to more recent releases? None.

Everyone can run around and go 'The hobby is dying' all they like, but it really isn't. 5-10 years from now, when 3D printers are affordable for everyone, the hobby will take on another giant leap and gain a whole new set of enthusiasts. The main selling point for the first generation of home-based 3D printers will be aimed squarely at the hobby industries.

Vince