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OK Tomaholics, the Israelis going 2 get through the camo cats?


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I remember back in the day when they pulled the raid on Iraq but word is out, wonder if it would be a fur ball this time? Thoughts?

WOW with 2 of my favourite jets! I cant wait to build one for the mission. What loadout. Why RAAM? not Baz?

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This one will be interesting if they pull it off. The first time it was pretty much an unexpected move, so I'd bet that Iran has been posting early warning systems for a while now.

Last time, Israel had to go a very direct route because of the lack of in air refueling, since they do now, they could conceivably go from any direction (I kinda doubt they'll ask permission from any flyover countries).

I read Raid on the Sun about their attack on the Iraqi facility a while back and it was great. I very much recommend it.

John

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This one will be interesting if they pull it off. The first time it was pretty much an unexpected move, so I'd bet that Iran has been posting early warning systems for a while now.

Last time, Israel had to go a very direct route because of the lack of in air refueling, since they do now, they could conceivably go from any direction (I kinda doubt they'll ask permission from any flyover countries).

I read Raid on the Sun about their attack on the Iraqi facility a while back and it was great. I very much recommend it.

John

"Last time" was 2007

http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/18/world/asia/18korea.html

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Operation_Orchard

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Does anyone know which SAM systems are being used by Iran? Any mention of upcoming purchases?

Took a quick look, didn't see much.

sorry if I missed it.

Their most modern SAM system is the Russian SA-15. I think they are also using HAWKS and early model Russian SAMs.

Also have various handheld IR missiles and AAA.

They tried to obtain SA-300's but for political reasons, the sale never went through.

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Wow, I didn't know about that one. You'd think after two (any other missions like this?) , that most folks in the region would figure out what might happen if they go down this road.

John

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With IFR, they can strike from nearly any direction they want to, although there are limits to what their ingress and egress routes are likely to be. Iran is a BIG country.

I would expect from a range standpoint alone that this will be the exclusive realm of the F-15I as even with extra tanks, the F-16s are pretty short legged unless Israel were to plan a strike with the Ra'ams doing the deep penetration strikes on targets in the mountains while the F-16s are used against targets closer to the Persian Gulf. Main problem as I see it is Iran has seeded their Nuclear facilities at different locations. They don't seem to be keeping them in one location like what Iraq and Syria did (and the Iranians struk Osirak before the Israelis did, but didn't do much damage).

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It's a huge challenge for Israel due to the fact that there are many facilities involved and most have been hardened to the point that there is some doubt whether conventional bombs can completely take them out. More than one "expert" has suggested that a strike of this nature is beyond Israel's capability (one reason given was the very small number of tankers they have). In a perfect scenario (from the Israeli standpoint at least), this would be a joint strike w/ US B-2's and other assets.

I read some reports that for the facilities that are too deep to be be bombed, Israel was considering sending in commandos.

Who knows??? They are masters of disinformation and deception. I'm sure if/when this actually goes down, there will be plenty of surprises.

Personally, I hope that they find an effective diplomatic solution and don't have to send in the jets. Not looking forward to > $6/gal gasoline and seeing all my stocks tumble again.

Edited by 11bee
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11bee hit it on the head, I think we're in for a suprise. No one in the Middle East (Save Syria and Lebanon) wants Iran to get the bomb so an odd backdoor relationship has developed between surrounding nations and Israel. Whatever the outcome, I hope its sooner than later. This issue should have and could have been dealt with over 15 years ago.

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only the US could completely stop Irans nuke program; its so dispersed and numerous. youd need a lot to get everything. Ironically Iran seems to be following a similar historical pattern of Israel with its Dimona facility.

A strike could have very mixed results; a lot of Iranians have no love for their government, though a foreign aggressor will almost certainly make even the most frustrated Iranian go very patriotic, not to mention many Iranians want the security of a nuclear deterrent against forgiven influence, most certainly accelerated by what's happened to its neighbours - sort of a damned if you do, damned if you don't feeling.

I totally believe soft power approach is the solution for dealing with Iran - what those at the top in tehran really fear is Iranians getting increased access to the wider world - the internet and the ideas found on it (free speach, open communication, fair govt) have been far more damaging to the Islamic republic than even the greatest bunker busting bomb. to 'take out Iran TM' I believe it should be our goal to try an expose every Iranian to these virtues, and they themselves will take out their frustrations on those who have oppressed them for so long.

"Scientia potentia est" ;)

I just dont understand why they dont leave the NPT and be done with it.

when it comes to the gulf there are no good guys/bad guys; just a lot of dirty hands trying to get a stake in many pies. I cant see how a conflict will help any of this.

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only the US could completely stop Irans nuke program; its so dispersed and numerous. youd need a lot to get everything. Ironically Iran seems to be following a similar historical pattern of Israel with its Dimona facility.

A strike could have very mixed results; a lot of Iranians have no love for their government, though a foreign aggressor will almost certainly make even the most frustrated Iranian go very patriotic, not to mention many Iranians want the security of a nuclear deterrent against forgiven influence, most certainly accelerated by what's happened to its neighbours - sort of a damned if you do, damned if you don't feeling.

I totally believe soft power approach is the solution for dealing with Iran - what those at the top in tehran really fear is Iranians getting increased access to the wider world - the internet and the ideas found on it (free speach, open communication, fair govt) have been far more damaging to the Islamic republic than even the greatest bunker busting bomb. to 'take out Iran TM' I believe it should be our goal to try an expose every Iranian to these virtues, and they themselves will take out their frustrations on those who have oppressed them for so long.

"Scientia potentia est" ;)

We've been trying to do that for over least ten years and have sold other govt's on that theory, but it hasn't really worked out for us which is why those countries that have already asked us for help with stopping Iran's nuke program are asking Israel.

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not that this is a bad thing; I don't believe having any of the major superpowers involved has proved particularly helpful, and if a solution is to be found it will be through regional multilateral diplomacy.

given the involvement of the US/UK in Iranian history; notably the overthrowing the democratically elected government 1953 I do wonder if US/UK/RU/CN all backed off supporting their respective parties in the wider gulf whether then a real solution could be devised

Edited by Raymond
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Guys...let's keep the politics out of this. The discussion about the mission and the planes is what it should be about...let's stay away from the politicians side of this please...

Virtually no chance of that in a thread like this. I'm surprised this thread wasn't immediately locked down or better, deleted.

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We can armchair quarterback hypothetical theories about what systems would be used for attacking the facility, but unlike the reactor strike, not all the facility, I would say is above ground. So unless the Israelis have earth moving munitions that can bury in 50 feet down before exploding, you're not going to get the result that you did in 1980. But the Israelis also know that the world is a different place now and there's less tolerance for an outright attack on Iran as they did in 1980. Politics isn't a catchword, it's consequences of one's actions in the real world. And one that could result in nasty fallout for everyone, not just those who are involved in the raid.

Edited by The_Animal
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As much as I would like to wake up tomorrow and hear the heroic raid on Iran's nuclear program by F-15I's, I am not so sure it will happen. I am certainly no expert but feel my opinion is considered.

A: there is too much media interest in the story, it would need some kind of diversion.

B: The Iranian's must be onto this. I remember reason in AFM Iran were worried about having all their aircraft in one place for a parade because of the possibility of a strike by Israel.

C: Something like a computer virus or some kind of cyber warfare could be equally as effective. Sure its not going to destroy the physical facility, but if you can't cool the facility , you can't run it. There was a story last year about a cyber attack on Iran, this was probably either a test or a failed attempt.

To go back to the original question, surely the USA would (if they have not already) supply Israel with the information necessary to jam the phoenix or make it ineffective once fired.

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I totally believe soft power approach is the solution for dealing with Iran - what those at the top in tehran really fear is Iranians getting increased access to the wider world - the internet and the ideas found on it (free speach, open communication, fair govt) have been far more damaging to the Islamic republic than even the greatest bunker busting bomb. to 'take out Iran TM' I believe it should be our goal to try an expose every Iranian to these virtues, and they themselves will take out their frustrations on those who have oppressed them for so long.

Good point but a strategy like this takes time and if you believe the reports on the Iranians progress, time is running pretty short. I don't envy Israel, they are in a tough position. A 100% effective strike would be a longshot but the alternative isn't much better. Personally, I think they might be better at this juncture by continuing the present course of sabotage to push back the schedule and hope that at some point in the semi-near future, the current regime is replaced. Either by revolution or by a more moderate leader coming to power through peaceful means. Keep in mind that at one point, these two countries actually had some level of cooperation.

Anyway, to get back to the military side of the discussion, if they do opt to strike, I think we are going to see some very interesting cyber-war techniques being employed.

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Wow, I didn't know about that one. You'd think after two (any other missions like this?) , that most folks in the region would figure out what might happen if they go down this road.

John

Yeah I don't know what was happening at the time here in the US but I felt like it barely got a mention at the time!

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STUXNET did a great job at destroying some of Iran's nuke equipment...

let's hope DUQU does as much damage... that would be a great continuation...

Edited by mingwin
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The BBC link is a good overview (gotta plug my institute too.) Here are some thoughts of mine.

#1: The weapons portion of the Iranian nuclear program is dormant, but very advanced. They are in possession of schematics for a nuclear weapon (I think provided by North Korea), and did undertake significant research before shutting the program down early last decade. We're not sure where they are precisely, but its certainly very advanced. Really the main aim of any strike will be to break the civilian nuclear fuel cycle, which could provide the critical highly enriched uranium to make a bomb. This provides a series of advantages and disadvantages surrounding this situation. These facilities are large and easily identifiable. However their size also creates difficulties: you can't easily destroy an entire plant... particularly if portions of it are hardened. As the article says they would attempt to find the critical bottlenecks. And that might help. However the Iranian Nuclear program as a whole is at a point where they would be able to reconstitute parts of it without outside help. They might seek to militarize their program and reconstitute it to purely carry out the production of weapons grade HEU rather the LEU. This would make it far more difficult to undertake a second strike.

#2 A lone Israeli strike basically would signal the end of any substantive international measures on Iran. That means after the strike the Iranians would probably just reconstitute their program and face less verification measures by the IAEA due to Security Council disagreements. Thus all the measures that have been put into place now will be weakened, allowing Iran to get away with more.

#3 the tanking issue discussed in the article belies a bigger problem: a lack of surprise. Osirak worked because of two things: surprise, and Iraq's preoccupation with Iran. Frankly, they won't have that surprise in this case. Any overflight over Iraq will likely be reported. Furthermore Iran's own military capabilities most critical role is to defend these sites. This brings a very very difficult question that an Israeli policy maker must face: the very high likelihood that there will be Israeli losses.. with capture being very likely. Given what happened with Shalit, you can see the possible issues. Furthermore they must consider whether they can sustain significant losses among their air force.

#4 the foreign policy it will likely result in a major backlash... both for Israel and, depending how it handles it, United States. Certainly Israel has a very concerned view of these developments. But any hope for even a modestly positive outcome would be put under severe threat.

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