Scott R Wilson Posted September 7, 2014 Share Posted September 7, 2014 I see the lava flow we have had going on here since June 27th finally made the national news. For anyone interested, the Hawaii Volcano Observatory has a great website. Here are some of the best links: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/activity/kilaueastatus.php http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/multimedia/index.php?newSearch=true&display=custom&volcano=1&resultsPerPage=20 http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/ Our house is in Hawaiian Beaches. On the current map at the link above, we are right under the "B" in Beaches, at the intersection of that road that cuts through the area diagonally and the road extending straight down from the "B". Needless to say we are paying attention to where the flow is going. At a meeting in Pahoa a few days ago, the USGS scientist said lava flows are always unpredictable. They can speed up, slow down, change direction or stop at any moment. They were predicting the first houses in Ka'ohe Homesteads might be burning inside of 7 days at the rate the flow was moving then, but yesterday the flow seemed to have slowed down and change directions. Time will tell... Scott W. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
jester292 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Be safe! Aaron Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Alternative 4 Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 Be safe out there. Hope your house is spared. As excited I am to be going to Hawaii next year and want to see lava on Big Island, your story is rather scary. According to google lava can flow at around 3 miles an hour, that is bloody fast! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
phantomdriver Posted September 8, 2014 Share Posted September 8, 2014 between there and Iceland... Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted September 8, 2014 Author Share Posted September 8, 2014 Be safe out there. Hope your house is spared. As excited I am to be going to Hawaii next year and want to see lava on Big Island, your story is rather scary. According to google lava can flow at around 3 miles an hour, that is bloody fast! For now the only way to see the lava flowing is by helicopter, but by the time you get here that might change! It's only flowed about 200 yards since yesterday so it's moving slowly, but that could always change. Regardless, I highly recommend you do the helo ride if you can at all afford it. So far it looks like the lava will stay well south of us but lava flows are unpredictable. The problem according to a USGS geologist I talked to is that lava doesn't flow continuously downhill in the low spots like water because it creates its own dams as it flows; if it cools at the end of the flow enough to solidify it creates a dam, and molten rock coming from behind then changes direction. Flows can also slow, stop, speed up and change volume anytime. Still, we will be safe enough or so it seems, we should have a few days to evacuate if it becomes necessary. Some people in the past even bought a new piece of land and had their house moved to it when a flow was coming. We smell the volcano when the winds come from that way, fortunately not very often. They call it vog. Hydrogen sulfide gas reacts with water vapor to create sulfuric acid droplets in the air, not especially healthy to breathe. It smells a lot like a struck match, or an old car battery. We are far enough away that it isn't dangerous especially since the winds are so infrequently coming our way from it. But people with asthma or other breathing problems can be affected. The tradewinds usually tend to blow the vog anywhere from west to north, so Kailua-Kona on the west side of the Big Island and the neighbor islands get more vog than we do, even though we are far closer to the vents. We are hoping it doesn't come our way but seems some people eventually will lose their homes unless the flow stops altogether, always a possibility. A friend calls dealing with hurricanes and lava flows a "Paradise Tax." I suppose it's no riskier and maybe even safer as far as the risk of losing your life than living in "tornado alley" on the mainland, or in an earthquake zone in California. And after the flow cools, you still own your land! Though admittedly it probably wouldn't be worth much then. Scott W. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Alternative 4 Posted September 9, 2014 Share Posted September 9, 2014 It certainly makes life exciting! Probably a lot safer than tornado alley, at least lava is a bit more predictable. Its great the government provides so much information about the changing environment. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Alternative 4 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 You still there Scott? Saw Pahoa on the news tonight. Not looking good. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 (edited) You still there Scott? Saw Pahoa on the news tonight. Not looking good. Yeah, getting exciting here! The flow is still six miles or so from our house, and took from June 27 to now to go 11 miles so I think we'll have quite a bit of time. Also it's now projected to go north of our house, missing us by about a half mile, but of course that could change. We rented a storage unit in Hilo for all of our furniture and stuff, just in case. We plan to not actually put anything in it until the flow gets closer to us, then we'll store all but the essentials and stay here unless it looks like it's going to get our house after all. That way we'll have a minimum of stuff to worry about moving. Unfortunately most of the houses in its path right now appear to belong to people without much money, judging by the state of disrepair some of them are in. All the roads near it are closed except to the residents on those roads so we haven't been able to see the actual lava ourselves. They aren't even allowing the media in there, though I saw ABC had a crew sneak in and get video of a breakout upslope. Hope they didn't get caught, the county government has prosecuted others who did that. All the legitimate photos and video are coming from the Civil Defense and HVO geologists. There's a TFR over the flow front as well, so the tour helicopters have to be above 4,000 feet. I was at the Pahoa Post Office last night and could clearly see the smoke plume and a red glow behind a row of trees though. The Hawaii Volcanoes Observatory site has some very interesting photos and video up now, click on the link: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/multimedia/index.php?newSearch=true&display=custom&volcano=1&resultsPerPage=20 Edited October 29, 2014 by Scott R Wilson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 (edited) Here's the HVO flow map from a few days ago. I added an orange arrow to show where our house is, if anyone is interested. We're right at the tip of the arrow. The blue lines were added in by HVO to show the paths of steepest descent, and the lava has been tending to follow those. The data isn't exact though, they only have data showing 10 foot elevation changes and pahoehoe lava will be redirected by as little as three feet. But assuming it tracks the path of steepest descent shown on the map, the flow will veer to the north and pass by our subdivision. Edited October 29, 2014 by Scott R Wilson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SBARC Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Wow Scott...this is worrisome. I hope it goes around you guys. Is it possible to use sea water in fire hoses to cool the flow at strategic spots to create cooled lava dams to alter the direction of the flow? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Alternative 4 Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 Glad to hear you are ok. I saw that CBS crew, going into the area at night seemed very stupid to me. I hope they get caught! Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted October 29, 2014 Author Share Posted October 29, 2014 (edited) Wow Scott...this is worrisome. I hope it goes around you guys. Is it possible to use sea water in fire hoses to cool the flow at strategic spots to create cooled lava dams to alter the direction of the flow? They said early on they won't try to change the flow. Too much a chance of diverting it from one house and causing it to hit someone else's. They said they will just let nature take its course. Diverting it was tried with fire hoses and ocean water to save a harbor in Iceland, and from what I read the people involved said they doubt they had any real effect, They said the only thing that saved the harbor was that the eruption abruptly ended. Frankly Steve, I think the more worrisome situation is that of your wife's. I sure hope everything turns out okay for you two. If the lava burns our house we'll find another one, not that big a deal really. It's all part of the adventure of living here. Edited October 29, 2014 by Scott R Wilson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SBARC Posted October 29, 2014 Share Posted October 29, 2014 They said early on they won't try to change the flow. Too much a chance of diverting it from one house and causing it to hit someone else's. They said they will just let nature take its course. Diverting it was tried with fire hoses and ocean water to save a harbor in Iceland, and from what I read the people involved said they doubt they had any real effect, They said the only thing that saved the harbor was that the eruption abruptly ended. Frankly Steve, I think the more worrisome situation is that of your wife's. I sure hope everything turns out okay for you two. If the lava burns our house we'll find another one, not that big a deal really. It's all part of the adventure of living here. Thanks Scott. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
chuck540z3 Posted October 30, 2014 Share Posted October 30, 2014 (edited) Hey Scott, that's a great map you've posted above. Now I finally know exactly where your house is, what the topography is and what the risks are. I'm no vulcanologist (but I am a geophysicist who knows a bit about this stuff), but I like your chances based upon the topography. There appears to be an old lava flow just to the SSW of the Hawaiian Beaches area that has left a remnant high, which will hopefully block the flow away from the HB area to the NW. Pahoa looks like it will be hit for sure, so unless the flow heads a bit to the south of Pahoa when it does, the flow should stay west of your neighborhood. Fingers crossed! Edited October 30, 2014 by chuck540z3 Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Here are two fascinating (and to me somewhat frightening) videos describing how lava flows and the dangers to be aware of here on Hawaii Island: Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted November 2, 2014 Author Share Posted November 2, 2014 Hey Scott, that's a great map you've posted above. Now I finally know exactly where your house is, what the topography is and what the risks are. I'm no vulcanologist (but I am a geophysicist who knows a bit about this stuff), but I like your chances based upon the topography. There appears to be an old lava flow just to the SSW of the Hawaiian Beaches area that has left a remnant high, which will hopefully block the flow away from the HB area to the NW. Pahoa looks like it will be hit for sure, so unless the flow heads a bit to the south of Pahoa when it does, the flow should stay west of your neighborhood. Fingers crossed! Thanks Chuck. We have accepted that the flow still might get our house in the end (watch the first video I linked to above, you'll understand what I mean), and we'll deal with it. We are in a far better position than someone hit by a tornado, hurricane or flash flood, or someone hit by a medical disaster such as stroke or cancer for that matter. There are other houses to buy, and we already rented a storage unit to save our furniture and stuff. In the meantime it's really kind of a cool adventure living here, much better than our mundane existance in Wisconsin. I think we were needing the challenges to make us feel alive again instead of merely existing. It's hard to explain, but I would rather live here and have the threat of the lava and hurricanes than go back to our former lives in Wisconsin. Aloha and mahalo! Scott Quote Link to post Share on other sites
SBARC Posted November 3, 2014 Share Posted November 3, 2014 Odd question time.... I'm curious what they plan to do about the cemetary that will be covered by the lava flow? Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 (edited) Odd question time.... I'm curious what they plan to do about the cemetary that will be covered by the lava flow? It's already mostly covered, and new breakouts are finishing covering it if they haven't already done so. There was no real discussion about relocating the graves. Scott Edited November 3, 2014 by Scott R Wilson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted November 3, 2014 Author Share Posted November 3, 2014 (edited) It's already mostly covered, and new breakouts are finishing covering it if they haven't already done so. There was no real discussion about relocating the graves. Scott Check out the top map on this page: http://hvo.wr.usgs.gov/maps/ Edited November 3, 2014 by Scott R Wilson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Alternative 4 Posted January 27, 2015 Share Posted January 27, 2015 I just booked some accommodation near the Leilani estates. The confirmation email came with links to the Volcano Observatory website which is slightly scary! I gather the flow has slowed and is flowing away from this area. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Scott R Wilson Posted January 27, 2015 Author Share Posted January 27, 2015 (edited) I just booked some accommodation near the Leilani estates. The confirmation email came with links to the Volcano Observatory website which is slightly scary! I gather the flow has slowed and is flowing away from this area. The flow seems to be reaching a limit as to how far it can go from the vent. At the meetings in Pahoa with Hawaiian Volcano Observatory scientists that we have weekly when there's a lot of activity and every other week when there's less, the scientists say the lava output from the vent has diminished to less than half what it was last August. They also say they don't have a lot of data on pahoehoe lava flows that have traveled this far from the vent, so they can't really predict what it's going to do, but signs are encouraging. Pahoehoe flows typically form a lava tube when the surface cools enough to solidify. As the tube walls thicken the lava is well insulated, losing about 1 degree C for every kilometer. But the temperature at which the lava comes out of the ground isn't all that much above the melting point so it doesn't have to cool much before it solidifies. As the flow front solidifies, pressure builds in the tube, causing it to swell up, and eventually lava breaks out at the weak points which can be at or near the front or further upslope. This flow is following the usual pattern of flowing awhile then stalling, followed by breakouts that in turn flow then stall. It's still a bit more than a quarter mile from the highway and after being stalled for several days started creeping forward again. Sunday to Monday, it only went 50 yards. We think it will stall again shortly but only Madame Pele knows for sure. As to your trip, I think you'll be fine. We are beginning to think the flow might never cross Highway 130, but even if it does there is an alternate route in place they will open. You'll still be able to get to Leilani, no problem. If they do open the alternate route, you'll be driving right by my house as you go on it. My street, Kahala St., is part of the Railroad Avenue alternate. Leilani is way upslope of the flow so no danger at all there. I think your visit will be nothing but awesome if you don't mind me using that way overused word. Do you have set plans for places to see and things to do? The weather has been outstanding over the past month, hopefully that continues when you are here. I may have mentioned, if you are a light sleeper bring ear plugs, the Coqui frogs are quite loud at night. PM me and I'll give you my phone number if you like. Maybe we can get together. If you don't already have it, the absolutely best guide for the Big Island is "Big Island Revealed." There's also a phone app by the same people, only about $10 and well worth it. I use the app frequently. Aloha! Scott W. Edited January 27, 2015 by Scott R Wilson Quote Link to post Share on other sites
Alternative 4 Posted May 4, 2018 Share Posted May 4, 2018 On 1/28/2015 at 8:37 AM, Scott R Wilson said: Aloha! Scott W. I see you haven't logged in for a couple of years, but wondered if you were still in Pahaoa? I see there are evacuations in that area Quote Link to post Share on other sites
fulcrum1 Posted May 6, 2018 Share Posted May 6, 2018 Was headed to the Big Island military volcano camp in a couple weeks for Memorial Day weekend with the family....not so much anymore! Be safe y’all. Quote Link to post Share on other sites
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