Breakthrough (?) 3D printing technology!

[Jennings]

Fascinating. When the cost of this reaches a certain point, we could theoretically all own our own printer, and simply buy the 3D file from a "model" company (or create our own if we're so inclined).

This feels like where desktop computers were in about 1980....

http://carbon3d.com

[toadwbg]

The future is here. Cool stuff. Where I work we continue to do more and more rapid prototyping.

BTW, I see there is already legislation to try and contain this technology to prevent misuse! My intent for this thread is not political so do your own research.

[Jennings]

Yeah, best of luck restraining technology.

[toadwbg]

Yeah, best of luck restraining technology.

I'm off the same line of thinking.

[wh1skea]

Hopefully, it won't take decades before this form of printing becomes affordable for in-home use.

[Jennings]

I'd have a hard time believing any new technology, especially one that already exists, will take decades to become cheap and widespread if it's something as useful as this. I remember not that long ago when cell phones ("car phones") were only for really rich people.

[vince14]

I'd have a hard time believing any new technology, especially one that already exists, will take decades to become cheap and widespread if it's something as useful as this. I remember not that long ago when cell phones ("car phones") were only for really rich people.

Why not? The first ever cell phone call happened in 1973, but the concept didn't really become a 'must have' available to everyone until 30 years later...

I'd say we're still at least five years - and more likely ten - away from 'Print Your Own Kit'.

[Jennings]

The first cell phone was in 1973. When did they become ubiquitous? Computers were invented in the 1930s, but once the PC revolution got going, it went very, very quickly. In 1996 I paid $100 per MEGABYTE of RAM. Today I can buy it for 1/100,000 of that price.

[Flankerman]

If everyone starts printing off their own models - how are we going to be able to slag off the big maufacturers.???

It'll be the end of model discussion forums - you mark my words!!

Ken

[MacStingy]

WOW! That just blew me away.

[toadwbg]

If everyone starts printing off their own models - how are we going to be able to slag off the big maufacturers.???

It'll be the end of model discussion forums - you mark my words!!

Ken

To play the devil's advocate:

We have the ability to 2D print decals today. Some of us do it very well, some of us not so much and we prefer to get it from the professionals. I think 3D printing might be much the same. As such, I expect Tamiya to sill be around in 20 years to make great kits for us who like a shake-and-bake, well researched and engineered kit.

[Tracy White]

Adding on the Devil's Advocate... there are people who enjoy collecting, and there are people who enjoy building (as well as a spectrum in between). 3D printing isn't going to be of much interest for someone who is looking for a project they can do with their hands.

[Joel_W]

For a old guy like me, another 10 years and I'll be pushing 80, not sure I'll still be modeling, but I surely won't have the skills to do 3D modeling.

Joel

[Jennings]

Undoubtedly so, but I'd wager there are a LOT of kits out there that will forever be collected and never built :)

[Horrido]

Eventually, I'm sure they'll get to the point where they will print the surface colors along with the shapes.

[Tracy White]

It will be interesting to see what happens to the industry. Will kits in the stash become less valuable because fewer people want to build, or more because conventional kits won't sell as much (i.e. companies tank and there's no new product) and will be harder to find? Will aftermarket decals be a viable business or will artists develop that can simply change markings on the fly the way people swap in layers on side and top views and hit print?

I like building, but there are some subjects that I'd probably buy printed if it were available b3ecause I don't want to build them THAT much. They're the ones I treat as "I just want a simple kit to slam together without thinking" now.

[niart17]

I don't know, I don't necessarily see it completely eliminating the modeling hobby but rather changing it, at least until truly accurate photo-realistic 3-d printing comes along. I mean, right now you can buy really accurate die cast replicas and pre-built fully painted plastic replicas, yet we still mostly prefer to buy a kit and build it. I think 3-d printing might just get rid of the need for things like sprue and ejector pin clean up etc.., and make some parts accurately that before weren't possible because of the limitations of molding. But I see there still being kits that have to have parts painted and assembled. Or at least I hope. Like I said, until real full color printing comes along, all those parts have to be painted. And to make internal parts accessible to be painted, they pretty much have to be separate. I am optimistic about it but time will tell.

Bill

[niart17]

I'd have a hard time believing any new technology, especially one that already exists, will take decades to become cheap and widespread if it's something as useful as this. I remember not that long ago when cell phones ("car phones") were only for really rich people.

True, BUT the plastics industry is huge. If you tell these companies that have huge amounts invested in manufacturing processes that now anyone can make what they need, well let's just say they are going to try to throw up a LOT of road blocks. Who knows, might be an off the cuff conspiracy theory, but perhaps they are somewhat behind the government looking to control this tech. It definitely will be very interesting to watch how all this unfolds.

I see this somewhat the same as the home computer/printer and the book industry. I mean you can print a book or just call up one on your screen. But that doesn't mean there aren't authors any more. It just changed the industry to where hard copy books aren't as in demand as they once were. There still is a need for a creative person to sit down and do what they do, create.

Bill

[RiderFan]

The DRM for downloaded content will be interesting. Even outside of the hobby industry, you're going to have companies needing to control the number of prints you can get from a single file so that they can make money. An 'Itunes' style system would need to be set up to avoid having people purchasing a kit file and then sharing the file with their buddies. DRM stops that (mostly) but how do you stop someone from downloading the kit, then printing copies for their buddies? Right now everyone has to buy a kit. For business trying to make money, making it as difficult as possible for someone to mass produce that companies kit for their friends is going to be a challenge. Toss in the complication that you may not get a good print the first time, you can't simply have a 'one and done' file because you may need to run that same job 3 or 4 times just to get a good part. So the system needs to know if you're printing the kit many times, or just printing the kit until you get a suitable print.

You're also going to have the problem of these machines not necessarily being plug-and-play. These machines have a lot of moving parts and fiddly bits that don't hold up well to normal home use. The process of downloading and printing the part is going to have to be improved dramatically before someone like my parents would use one. There's just too many steps in the workflow to make something.

Injection moldeding is still the best solution for this sort of product. The detail is better than 3D printing, the cost per part is far less, and the DRM is built in by the nature of the product. When a model company produces 3500 injection kits, they know what their revenue is going to be. When someone produces a 3D file that gets on the internet, the creator of that file has absolutely no idea how much money they'll make (if any). Makes it tough to run an effective business.

[niart17]

I was thinking about the same thing. One idea that might work would be that you incorporate a laser scanner into the printer that can inspect the part for QC. So for instance, you order a product by visiting the order page. On that page is a link-up function that sends the command to your printer to print (there would have to be a standard in-place for printers) while you're logged in. Once the print has completed the laser scans for quality and if all passes the link is broken. If not, it allows for another print until successful. I still think more likely than home printing will be local "print shops" to which you bring your order to have them print it. It would be more easily regulated for copyright protections as they would have to obtain legal rights to print from the copyright holders and could lose such privileges for infringing on them. Plus they could afford to have larger printers and more materials options. It may not be as cool and Jetsons-like as home printing, but it still would beat having to ship things all around the world.

As for your last point, in many ways the risk is less to a company when the design of a product is the only up-front cost. Companies might be more willing to take a chance on more extreme products if they don't have to pay for molds and package products that might not sell. Plus it eliminates the "run life" of a particular product. Molds wear out over time. The print files in theory could last forever. Plus, you can sell multiple versions of one subject with much greater ease without having to retool anything.

I agree it's a long way off from being a main stream process, but it's getting closer very quickly.

Bill

Edited June 16, 2015 by niart17

[niart17]

Why not? The first ever cell phone call happened in 1973, but the concept didn't really become a 'must have' available to everyone until 30 years later...

I'd say we're still at least five years - and more likely ten - away from 'Print Your Own Kit'.

Well, the first 3d printing happened in the 80's. So we are in that "30 years later" phase of this technology...Just sayin'.

[toadwbg]

3D printed injection molding tools. Comming soon.

[RiderFan]

Talking again about DRM, you have to have a place to manage not only licencing to rights holders, but also local law.

Take handgun's for an extreme example. In Canada it's currently extremely difficult for someone to go into a store and purchase a 9mm. But now it is 100% possible, even with today's relatively crappy 3D printers, to just download a file and print your own handgun. No license, no wait time, no training courses, no problem. It's already been proven possible. You can't print ammunition obviously but I'm sure someone could figure out how to put bullets in their newly printed Glock. Want to make your rifle fully automatic? Just download the part file. It's already been done. Want a fully automatic assault rifle? Yep, no problem. The USDOJ recently shut down a US based website giving away the 3D files but those files are already all over the internet.

So yeah, I get that the above is the most extreme example I could think of, but there absolutely needs to be some form of rights management for 3D printing files. And yes, I do understand the argument that any criminal is going to find ways to work around those restrictions with out too much effort (I can think of several ways off the top of my head) but I can't see politicians not attempting to at least look like they're doing something to control the problem.

Edited June 18, 2015 by RiderFan

[niart17]

Not to get too far into the politics of this, but I'm afraid that the government is going trying to "regulate" this technology and that is really wrong IMO. I think it's a ridiculous argument that because someone can print a gun on it then it needs to be more closely regulated than any other manufacturing tool. Someone could make a gun on a CNC machine using programs written and sold by others, but you don't see those being targeted for extreme regulations. I know it's not as affordable a machine, but it's just as DIY. I believe there are already laws that are intended to prevent a non-licensed person from making and selling an illegal fire arm. Isn't that enough? To regulate the tool because of a potential use is a very dangerous slope that I hope they aren't dumb enough to try to go down.

Bill

[Tracy White]

This is just a continuation of what we've seen in the last 20-40 years. Personal freedoms and rights don't mean as much as corporate rights.

The question is how many of us are willing to go to bat for the technology and freedom to use it. How many of you (Americans) will write your representative and say "restricting this in such ways is just wrong on principle?" It's not going to change until enough people actually care.