AIr Force Pilot Shortage

[Camus272]

Seems the Air Force will be 700 pilots short this year. I'm surprised by this, I would have thought with the reductions in aircraft,there would be plenty.

[Kurt H.]

I wonder if I can make my childhood dream finally come true at age 40.....

Probably not, But I sure would love to fly C-17s, C-5s, or the KC-10

Edited August 11, 2016 by Kurt H.

[echolmberg]

I'd join but only on the condition that I can fly a P-61 or an F-89.

[falcon20driver]

I don't feel bad for them. After the line of bs I was fed coming out of college by the military branches about not being able to fly for them for some of the most ridiculous reasons.

[jester292]

I never applied for it, but I've heard the same lines you were served. They have the most arbitrary "minimums" and "requirements". Let them suck that shortage lemon a while.

[82Whitey51]

...airlines must be hiring. :)

[Joe Hegedus]

...airlines must be hiring. :)/>

or the collateral duty/social engineering/BS level got too high.

[falcon20driver]

or the collateral duty/social engineering/BS level got too high.

This

[11bee]

or the collateral duty/social engineering/BS level got too high.

Still wonder if the AF would be better served having an option similar to the army's Warrant Officer program? Minimal admin / professional development / non-flying staff assignments so that certain boxes can be checked for those shooting for higher management levels.

Pretty much just a flying slot.

Seems that just as an AF pilot is at the top of his/her game, they get pulled for a non- flying assignment.

Maybe even lower the formal education requirements to attract more applicants. Do you really need a BS to be an effective pilot?

[falcon20driver]

I think the BS requirement is good. It's the "bs" requirements that are the problem. One branch told me if I didn't come out of a college that was at least 25% minority they wouldn't look at me. How the hell does that have anything to do with my performance capabilities?

[Dan 88]

Maybe if they would make flight training a better experience for the students, people would stay in. My buddies that went to Vance hated the way they were treated and not to mention Enid, Oklahoma isn't the best place to live either.

When I went through flight training (I'm a squid), I saw a lot of good pilots attrite due to NSS or being paired up with a dick instructor who fails them on a critical flight. At least 30% attrition from IFS to winging....

[TaiidanTomcat]

Still wonder if the AF would be better served having an option similar to the army's Warrant Officer program? Minimal admin / professional development / non-flying staff assignments so that certain boxes can be checked for those shooting for higher management levels.

Pretty much just a flying slot.

Seems that just as an AF pilot is at the top of his/her game, they get pulled for a non- flying assignment.

Maybe even lower the formal education requirements to attract more applicants. Do you really need a BS to be an effective pilot?

No one wants to emulate the army on this.

If the USAF is an organization run for, and by pilot types, you might want to keep pilots on upper level career paths. there are simply a certain number of "staff puke" jobs that need to be done, and it helps those jobs to get done when the people who have been there done that, get to do it. If everyone pick the "I just want to fly!" option, the people who don't fly as much or even at all end up getting higher and higher. Its great that the Army does the Warrant thing, but Warrants top out, and they are not technically officers which in the end makes them toothless. Now I know some old crusty warrant can still make boot officers cry, but eventually the boot officers are able to throw their own weight around. Now I know there is the old adage "Don't confuse my rank with my authority" which is true. There is something to that, but it has its limits.

There are actually interesting studies about where "real power" actually sits in hierarchies. In real terms is the assistant chief more powerful than the Cheif? Or is it the Cheifs wife?

You can be a warrant, but don't surprised what you trade to keep flying. Don't surprised when the "career officer" know nothing suddenly outranks you. Hell a 2nd LT outranks a CWO-5. How does that play out in real life? well usually the CWO has decades in, and the 2nd LT wouldn't try, but you know what? A captain would. Captains aren't afraid to tell Warrants who is running the show, and Warrants aren't going to try and bluff a Captain.

When this came up in another thread, the concept of Marine Warrant pilots I asked a couple people about it, and they loathed the idea. Also added that in their experience Warrants were useless, and lazy.

Air Force is the only Branch WITHOUT Warrants in fact.

or the collateral duty/social engineering/BS level got too high.

extremely possible.

Edited August 11, 2016 by TaiidanTomcat

[82Whitey51]

or the collateral duty/social engineering/BS level got too high.

Oh gawd yes...I thought things were bad on the tail end of 2011 when I retired!

Miss being in the airplane...don't miss being in the Navy.

[strikeeagle801]

I talked to a T-6 instructor pilot this weekend in Oregon. He pretty much said the same thing...That they were shot on pilots, and the AF basically wrote a blank check this year when it came to airshow displays/community involvement, just for the recruitment potential.

Aaron

[TaiidanTomcat]

I talked to a T-6 instructor pilot this weekend in Oregon. He pretty much said the same thing...That they were shot on pilots, and the AF basically wrote a blank check this year when it came to airshow displays/community involvement, just for the recruitment potential.

Aaron

Blank checks to keep retention or as recruiting bonuses though?

[11bee]

No one wants to emulate the army on this.

If the USAF is an organization run for, and by pilot types, you might want to keep pilots on upper level career paths. there are simply a certain number of "staff puke" jobs that need to be done, and it helps those jobs to get done when the people who have been there done that, get to do it. If everyone pick the "I just want to fly!" option, the people who don't fly as much or even at all end up getting higher and higher.

I see your points, was just thinking that not everyone wants to do a 20 year stint in the AF and climb those upper level career paths. Maybe there are a few folks that just want to get that nice flight training and rack up some flying hours before getting out to fly for the airlines. Anything you could do to convince those on the fence that they wouldn't have to handle officer BS, maybe it would get them to enlist? Not sure on this, might not be that much of a difference from a guy going in with plans to quit after his first enlistment is up. I'd hope the BS level is much less for the O-1 through O-3 folks.

I didn't see details on this "crisis". Is the problem a lack of candidates enlisting or is it a retention issue? If the latter, are there any studies out there that provide reasons for the mass exodus? Too many deployments? Too much BS? Don't like the F-35 (kidding guys, everyone loves the F-35)?

Edited August 12, 2016 by 11bee

[82Whitey51]

I'd hope the BS level is much less for the O-1 through O-3 folks.

Oh man, this is where the BS level is at its peak! They're spending more time learning how to assimilate transgender and gay people into the ranks than anything else...tack in several "trafficking in persons" sessions too.

[TaiidanTomcat]

Oh man, this is where the BS level is at its peak! They're spending more time learning how to assimilate transgender and gay people into the ranks than anything else...tack in several "trafficking in persons" sessions too.

It is the zenith of "stunning and brave", so it makes sense that the military could learn a thing or two.

As aside it's those junior officers that are under the most pressure to "make it work" when all those differing elements and contradictionS are thrown into a blender"

Edited August 12, 2016 by TaiidanTomcat

[TaiidanTomcat]

I see your points, was just thinking that not everyone wants to do a 20 year stint in the AF and climb those upper level career paths. Maybe there are a few folks that just want to get that nice flight training and rack up some flying hours before getting out to fly for the airlines. Anything you could do to convince those on the fence that they wouldn't have to handle officer BS, maybe it would get them to enlist? Not sure on this, might not be that much of a difference from a guy going in with plans to quit after his first enlistment is up. I'd hope the BS level is much less for the O-1 through O-3 folks.

I didn't see details on this "crisis". Is the problem a lack of candidates enlisting or is it a retention issue? If the latter, are there any studies out there that provide reasons for the mass exodus? Too many deployments? Too much BS? Don't like the F-35 (kidding guys, everyone loves the F-35)?

You basically have to explore the root cause, or many causes.

As a quick aside I'm not going to allow my son to join. Never thought i would say that. Too much political interference, and now former Generals are trying to make it harder for vets to exercise their rights. Add a healthy sprinkle of the VA, being the VA. And now double standards for combat MOS's. It's madness. And if we think that isn't lost on the people who may fatally suffer the consequences, we need to think again.

I'm not saying that is the whole cause, but it doesn't help. And may br the cause.

"The new pay increase will help keep up with inflation, but not BS which is increasing at an exponential rate"

I can say from personal experience we are losing really good people. The CMC is trying to get ahold of it because people aren't leaving out of difficulty, but white hot frustration

[strikeeagle801]

Blank checks to keep retention or as recruiting bonuses though?

No, just to get pilots/crew and equipment to any and all airshows and public events that asked for Air Force participation.

Aaron

[Waco]

This problem is a lot more complex than any of the public articles published to date. It is both a retention and a recruitment problem, although more so on the retention side at the moment.

It's also worth noting the 700 number for shortfalls does not technically include very many actual cockpits. Those are filled before any other positions. There are over 700 positions which REQUIRE a pilot or require pilot experience, but do not actually involve flying an aircraft. Many of these are staff, acquisition, test, and research positions which the AF has coded for pilots (many with good justification, some not).

So it's not like there are 700 cockpits unfilled or RPA consoles unmanned.

Warrant officers is not going to happen. "Technical Expert Track" vs. "Leadership Track" career path options gets discussed all the time. It's unlikely to ever be completely settled in those fashions, but it is entirely possible they will allow folks to opt out of 1 or 2 promotion boards and stay as a captain a bit longer. Opting out entirely of promotion and leadership competition becomes problematic unto itself. However, the RAAF use this model with some success, even allowing folks to step away from the service for a few years and return at their previous rank/position to resume their career. Looking at developing some of those more flexible career opportunities is definitely on the table, and almost all of these efforts are targeted at increasing the current retention rates. Changes/increases to compensation are also being considered, to include more and higher bonuses (although seldom does more money seem to solve the retention problem....typically we find we're throwing cash at people who would've stayed anyway, and not retaining the ones who want to get out regardless, so I question the wisdom here).

Frankly, I think there are lots of other reasons. The F-22 is currently the platform with the lowest retention rate in the AF for pilots. I have plenty of theories as to why that is so. None of them have anything to do with money or career opportunity.

[11bee]

This problem is a lot more complex than any of the public articles published to date. It is both a retention and a recruitment problem, although more so on the retention side at the moment.

It's also worth noting the 700 number for shortfalls does not technically include very many actual cockpits. Those are filled before any other positions. There are over 700 positions which REQUIRE a pilot or require pilot experience, but do not actually involve flying an aircraft. Many of these are staff, acquisition, test, and research positions which the AF has coded for pilots (many with good justification, some not).

So it's not like there are 700 cockpits unfilled or RPA consoles unmanned.

Warrant officers is not going to happen. "Technical Expert Track" vs. "Leadership Track" career path options gets discussed all the time. It's unlikely to ever be completely settled in those fashions, but it is entirely possible they will allow folks to opt out of 1 or 2 promotion boards and stay as a captain a bit longer. Opting out entirely of promotion and leadership competition becomes problematic unto itself. However, the RAAF use this model with some success, even allowing folks to step away from the service for a few years and return at their previous rank/position to resume their career. Looking at developing some of those more flexible career opportunities is definitely on the table, and almost all of these efforts are targeted at increasing the current retention rates. Changes/increases to compensation are also being considered, to include more and higher bonuses (although seldom does more money seem to solve the retention problem....typically we find we're throwing cash at people who would've stayed anyway, and not retaining the ones who want to get out regardless, so I question the wisdom here).

Frankly, I think there are lots of other reasons. The F-22 is currently the platform with the lowest retention rate in the AF for pilots. I have plenty of theories as to why that is so. None of them have anything to do with money or career opportunity.

Interesting.... Do you think they could eliminate the need for pilots to get assigned to UAV duty and instead go with the same approach other services are using? That would probably free up a good number of flight-rated personnel for other assignments.

Regarding F-22 pilot retention, that's surprising, given that an F-22 pilot is truly at the top of the pyramid. I vaguely recall reading something a while back that touched on this. It didn't go into detail on reasons why, except it mentioned something about many pilots disliking the F-22 because it was extremely uncomfortable to fly.

Can you shed any light on this?

[Waco]

The AF is totally changing its RPA operator manning module. For starters, there is going to be a major uptick in the number of enlisted RPA operators (Congressionally mandated). Step one is well underway, and the program is planned to rapidly expand beyond this after that. RQ-4 will be the threshold platform, with more platforms following.

Enlisted RPA operator selection board scheduled

They've also started identifying officer RPA operators earlier in the training pipeline, rather than involuntarily removing pilots from their current community to send them to RPAs. As the RPA mission has become more mainstreamed, there is also a significant uptick in volunteers to crossover into the community as well. All combined, these efforts are beginning to fix some of the manning shortfalls in the RPA community. Creation of a separate AFSC just for RPA operators (18X) is another effort to develop a separate personnel pipeline for the RPA community. It's going to take time, but the exponentially increasing demand for RPA operators means we've got to do a better job meeting those requirements. The AF has recognized and is aggressively working on that issue. Unfortunately, it's probably not fast enough to meet the actual demand signal yet.

*break*

F-22 pilot retention is a complex issue as well, but it has nothing to do with the aircraft being, "uncomfortable to fly." Not sure where that would've even come from, unless it was a rumor related to the oxygen system issues a few years ago. I've also never met a pilot who, "disliked" flying the F-22, which is another reason why the AF is having such a hard time answering the question, "why do we keep losing our F-22 pilots?" So far, they've not come up with a satisfactory answer.

[11bee]

F-22 pilot retention is a complex issue as well, but it has nothing to do with the aircraft being, "uncomfortable to fly." Not sure where that would've even come from, unless it was a rumor related to the oxygen system issues a few years ago. I've also never met a pilot who, "disliked" flying the F-22, which is another reason why the AF is having such a hard time answering the question, "why do we keep losing our F-22 pilots?" So far, they've not come up with a satisfactory answer.

I thought I read it in an issue of "Combat Aircraft" a year or so back. Kinda winging since it's been a while, but they touched on the fact that that due to some issue with the layout of the cockpit, many pilots thought the Raptor was extremely uncomfortable to fly. Didn't have anything to do with oxygen problems.

I would have thought that becoming a Raptor pilot would be a much coveted slot and as such, retention would be higher. Doesn't sound like they deploy any more or less than other units, really curious what the issues are.

Hope the AF gets a handle on things.

Edited August 13, 2016 by 11bee

[parche]

Remember that a big chunk of those top tier guys who get into those positions are, well, "top tier" and can generally feel very constricted by the military as a JO and don't see advantages to moving up. All of them have aspirations outside the military and service was only a step in their path. For every new JO who steps into my command, I get to review the resignation letter of a top notch submarine officer who is on his/her way out. Granted, the departures over the last six months fall into three categories: want to start a family, going to med school, going to Wharton business school. With all of the stuff JOs are required to do that has nothing to do with their warfare or leadership jobs, I am not surprised that they are running away elsewhere too.

Dave