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Hi! I've been a member here since shortly after the turn of the millennium but it's been years since I've made a post because...well, life I guess. But something's been eating at me a lot lately and that is the future of general aviation. The future of car enthusiasts is a question that's popped up a lot as how will you be able to go to the track in your Google autonomous car? But moreover there's serious question if future generations even care about going to the track.

 

I'm wondering the same thing about general aviation. For those of you who are lucky enough to enjoy GA as a profession or hobby, or even the (I have to imagine) many of you who simply follow the news, it's no secret that GA's been hammered as a market for years and ongoing, a situation that has to at least be as bad as it was in the 70s and 80s when litigation against manufacturers went amok and forced them out of the business. This time it isn't so much litigation as it is just runaway inflation and extremely high barriers to entry, plus potential emerging technologies or changing travel habits that may take away the incentive for owning or renting aircraft as transportation. I was hoping that the LSA market might make GA more attractive as strictly a hobby, but talking to some of my pilot colleagues it seems that the LSA market isn't exactly a rosy picture either. I've been wondering if maybe electric/green aircraft, even in the LSA category, might make GA more "sustainable" and attractive as a hobby to future pilots. 

 

But then I became aware of this: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FZx8yZVpVEU&index=4&list=PLj8kmZ6kpXqicthfQQcp_QuDpfVKYwEw-

 

Note that a lot of these drone fliers are former pilots, or motorcycle or automotive racers who became attracted to drone racing because they feel it gives the same experience for less risk.

 

And I'm wondering if there's even any point to making GA sustainable anymore. I'm wondering if the younger generations are going to be more into flying drones than actual aircraft?

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I think GA is going to branch in two directions, with very little overlap of the two - the rich folks flying high end, high performance aircraft and the entry level / folks of lesser means who will be flying something electric powered.  We're still in the early days of electrical powered light aircraft, they may never evolve into something you'll be using to fly the family non-stop from Boston to Tampa on but they will be more than sufficient for enthusiasts to get that $100 cheeseburger. 

 

On both ends of the spectrum, you will see envelope protection, "smart" autopilots, ballistic whole airframe parachutes and fully glass cockpits as standard equipment. 

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I'm ex-airline, current GA. And our market and owners are something I never thought of; surgeons, professional athletes, and CEO's who have more money than they know what to do with, but only want to pay for, and only need to use, small to medium size jets.  The market is way, way bigger than I ever could have imagined.  And it's growing impressively. 

Maybe it's different in different parts of the country and world, but GA is certainly putting up a good fight. Seems to be, dare I say it, thriving. And everyone in the GA world seems to be hiring flight crews. 

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Its been my dream to earn my PPL but the cost is now so high, it's stayed out of reach. Insurance, combined with rental fees for continuation flights/hours, GA flying as a hobby continues to be only a dream. I've even looked at grants or veterans benefits but they've removed flight schools from the approved schools. 

 

As has been said, this is becoming something for the rich now. Or a pipeline straight to the airline jobs. 

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General Aviation has been killed in my city by a group of politicians when they closed City Centre Airport in Edmonton.

 

This airport was the busiest general aviation airport in North America with on average 10,000 flights per year. There was also 4,000 medevac flights each year from this location. The closest critical care hospital was just across the street.

 

Medevacs were moved to Edmonton International Airport, which is a 7 minute helicopter flight, 30 minute ambulance drive to the same hospital.

 

General Aviation was deciminated. You rarely now see a GA aircraft in the sky. Many of the flying schools shut down, those that remained open are having trouble attracting students due to the distances required to travel to their remote airfields.

 

The spin-off spilled over to the entire industry that supports GS, aero engine shots closed as did avionics and other support facilities.

 

An entire industry was decimated. There were also geographic mapping companies, VIP transport companies, an countless others to left or shut-down.

 

The closure was spurred by a special interest group that owned land on the approach paths who bought the land dirt cheap due to height restrictions for buildings. They had their hands in the pockets of the politicians. Since the closure they have raised the land and built skyscrapers, raking in the money.

 

The Airport land was supposed to be developed, but is too heavily contaminated to do so.

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11 hours ago, SinisterVampire319 said:

Just an average Joe. Flying hand me downs.:rolleyes:

travoltas-house.jpg

I saw Travolta's 707 in Bangor, ME when it was refueling prior to going trans-Atlantic.   An absolutely beautiful jet, it was immaculate.   Must be nice... 

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10 hours ago, 11bee said:

I saw Travolta's 707 in Bangor, ME when it was refueling prior to going trans-Atlantic.   An absolutely beautiful jet, it was immaculate.   Must be nice... 

 

I met John Travolta when he was fueling his Gulfstream in Vancouver. I was in Vancouver as part of the Royal visit in 1997. He saw our five military helicopters and came over to talk aviation with us. 

 

He had had coffee with us for an hour, great guy. Very down to earth. 

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I'm now forced to retire from just about everything Aviation due to health, but I spent 65 years flying over 100 different types from basic gliders, SGU-19 to CF-104D...dual of course., and all the while getting kicks out of my primary job of ATC.  I;ve been a flight instructor for nearly 40 years and my last two students are both very successful commercial pilots but I do not see very many young Canadians wanting to step up to the plate and spend the time learning the basics of good "stick-and-rudder" skills.  

 

Most of the flying schools in the Fraser Valley are now owned by off shore interests and if you do not speak there language..stay away~you have poorly trained "other-nationals" turning out more of the same!  The costs alone can cripple a person...more than $12,000.00 for a private pilot licence.  Who can afford it.

 

Hey Scooby long time no talk!  Traffic for Boundary Bay 234000 take-offs and landings,,,Pitt Meadows, 279,000 of the same but since the invasion from the left side of the Pacific those numbers are down drastically  I worked both places during the good times

 

Happy New Year Guys

Barney.

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Honestly, I'm expecting homebuilts to eventually be the future of GA.  And I expect the FAA to eventually liberalize the rules on homebuilts, such that airframes can be supplied at a higher state of assembly than now.  I say this because liability and certification costs have pretty much paralyzed the market for new "average joe" airplanes; going homebuilt mostly eliminates these concerns.

 

I also think that GA is correcting to a more realistic state... the conditions in the 60s and 70s were propped up by other market factors and a greater supply of pilots; that "bubble" has popped and we're down to a more sustainable level.

 

Really, the best shot we have is good, active clubs with joint ownership.  That would make it more affordable.  Unfortunately, everyone wants their own airplane without having to share it, and everyone wants the airplane on the weekends and evenings.  But even a 3 or 4 person partnership would bring the cost of ownership into the "new economy car" range.

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Just thinking - you know how we currently have $200 dollar drones that fly precisely using nothing more than a cell phone app to control them?   How long before we have GA aircraft that are safely guided by similar technology?  You don't need stick and rudder skills, just use an app to punch in directions and sit back and relax.   I know some would ague that modern airliners are already there.   However, I'm suggesting that down the road, you won't need any piloting skills at all.   Just use the "flying app" to guide you safely from Point A to Point B, no different than the way you control a cheap drone today. I'd argue that day isn't as far away as we may think.  We are already seeing self-guiding cars, at the pace technology is developing, self-guiding GA aircraft aren't that far off. 

 

 

 

 

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On 12/30/2016 at 7:19 PM, Barneydhc82 said:

Digital stuff is fine but just look what happened at SFO with the 777 and Air france 447 over the south Atlantic....no piloting skills what so ever and look at the results!  If you don't know how to fly when the digimites go to sleep, just kiss your butt goodbye

 

Barney

Amen to that! The basic skills you learn as a stick-and-rudder pilot will save your beans when your dense IFR and the fancy shmansy cool electronics decide to crap out. Give me steam gauges and a paper sectional any day!!! 

 

Tim

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It's misunderstood by most people today, but stick and rudder skills are used on each and every flight.  Sophisticated autoflight systems are a great asset on the flight deck, but it does malfunction. And believe it or not, there are many, many pilots who don't know how to use that technology to its full extent, or sometimes even effectively at all. That's an entire subject on its own. 

 

Dont discount the skill and airmanship needed every day, even with the technology there.  

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9 hours ago, jester292 said:

It's misunderstood by most people today, but stick and rudder skills are used on each and every flight.  Sophisticated autoflight systems are a great asset on the flight deck, but it does malfunction. And believe it or not, there are many, many pilots who don't know how to use that technology to its full extent, or sometimes even effectively at all. That's an entire subject on its own. 

 

Dont discount the skill and airmanship needed every day, even with the technology there.  

Agreed 100%.  However in the last decade or so, the vast number of airline accidents (and to a slightly lesser extent, GA) are caused due to pilot error.  The aircraft and their systems have grown to be pretty darned reliable.  Most pilots make it through their entire career without ever dealing with a major issue (engine failure, etc).  As far as automation, I don't think there are very many cases where the autoflight system malfunctioned.  Most of the time it was either "garbage in = garbage out" or simply that the crew didn't understand how their systems worked. SFO was a good case study of having a perfectly good aircraft fly into the ground because the pilots lacked the understanding of how their autopilot worked.   That accident isn't unique, a Turkish 737 and the recent loss of an Emirates 777 were also due to similar issues.  Statistically, passengers are safest when the pilots have their hands off the controls and "otto" is running the show.

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Methinks that the majority of you who think GA is dying probably live in larger towns or cities with large airports and yes, GA is leaving those cities and airports.  Biggest reason is that the people who operate on those airports don't want "Bug Smashers" (mostly single engine GA aircraft) on their airports. And the main reason is that GA operators don't spend that much money on their planes.  On the other hand, Business a/c don't really care what they spend on maintenance and storage because they can write their expenses off at the end of the tax year. 

Now I live and work in a smaller town about 60 miles out of a large city and a small airport (4500 ft concrete runway and 2600 ft grass runway).  We have 4 older T hangers (built in 1949) w/4 renters in it (my little J3 is one of them), a much larger 3 year old "general" hanger which has 5 renters in it and 20 T hangers (about 1 1/2 yrs old) which is full and waiting list of 45 people who want to rent a T hanger. (and if we could convince the city to build more T hangers -say 50 or so, we could fill them all in 60 days or less).

Probably the biggest problem out here is a lack of maintenance facilities (I work out of my truck in your hanger) and maintenance personnel.  in a 60 mile radius of my home I know of exactly 5 guys(5 A&Ps, three who hold AIs) 

 

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Hawk10:  Wrong!  I have operated out  of a large metro area for 30 years , instructing part time and full time at a couple of schools as well as my really full time job as a tower controller at what was 2 of  the busiest GAonly airports in Canada.  Over the period in 1992 , at our busiest time numbers of schools flourished, aircraft movements were 250,000 to 300,000 per year and within 50 mile radius there are still 4 GA airports with hundreds of aircraft...that just sit either outside growing moss or inside a whole lot of hangars.

 

There are plenty of shops for maintenance and more than enough wrench-benders to go around,  But the old guys like myself at 81 are dying out and NOT being replaced by the younger digital crowd who grow hair on there thumbs from playing with their toys  

 

And when most of the FTUs are owned by Off-Shore money and will not even give you the time of day...well who would spend or even think of spending money on something like flying?

 

Happy New Year Guys

Barney

Edited by Barneydhc82
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