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hawkwrench

Coronavirus affecting the hobby???

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At my job, (prison) they are taking applications for early release. Wish they would do the same for we the staff!

 

So-called non violent clients (criminals) seem to be getting approved.  Most clients (criminals) are seriously  thinking all of them are getting out early, so look for a crime wave soon. 

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9 hours ago, Nigel Bunker said:

Like every other country, we pray for a vaccine to be discovered.

 

In the meantime I'll stay at home and work my way throughthe stash.

Unfortunately, this will take a lot of time before it happens. As many have said, it will take more than a year, with whatever this means for our societies.

 

At least, we have something to keep us occupied, though if there is no work, the money will end at some point!!!

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12 hours ago, Nigel Bunker said:

Sorry Steve but the entire country has gone on lockdown with everybody expected to stay at home except for essential journeys for food and medicine. Obviously essential workers are still working for us. The herd immunity idea has been abandoned (thank goodness) and we hope to loose as few people as possible. Like every other country, we pray for a vaccine to be discovered.

 

In the meantime I'll stay at home and work my way throughthe stash.

 

I saw the UK lockdown speech and I was quite relieved the herd immunity idea was abandoned.  The excellent South Korean model was an excellent one to follow.  Good grief, no creative thinking involved, just copy South Korea.

 

The UK and North America were some of the last countries to be hit by the tsunami of this virus.  Wuhan was locked down Jan 23 (2 months ago).  When that happened and 5 million people spread from Wuhan to other parts of China, that was when other governments should have been checking their stock piles of PPE and shift into a quiet panic mode.  When China built a hospital in 1 week, that should have set off alarm bells in every government and every person on the planet.  Building a hospital in 1 week is not a common occurrence and should have made people everywhere sit up and take notice. 

 

Three days after Wuhan was locked down I bought ten N95 masks for my family.  I figured N95 masks would be a better item to have than a stockpile of toilet paper.  I then bought a supply of rice (which can sit for years and years) and stretches any canned food supply.  Then I bought a bidet toilet seat, which makes toilet paper almost pointless.  My wife is not working so she stays home and one of my jobs has shutdown for at least a year while I work limited hours at my other job.  I am not a prepper by any stretch of the imagination, but we are prepared for the long haul.  The virus won't end until there is a vaccine becomes available and I have planned accordingly.  I was watching youtube videos out of Wuhan during the early weeks of the virus there and people were gearing up with plastic clothing and masks etc and they were still terrified as they went out to buy groceries.  Those Wuhan videos told me that having lots of food at home would be a good idea to help avoid going out to the grocery store.

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3 hours ago, phantom said:

At my job, (prison) they are taking applications for early release. Wish they would do the same for we the staff!

 

So-called non violent clients (criminals) seem to be getting approved.  Most clients (criminals) are seriously  thinking all of them are getting out early, so look for a crime wave soon. 

 

In my city the homeless shelters are closed.  The soup kitchens and foodbanks are also closed, so the drug addicts are now camping on the sidewalks and the police have stepped up patrols in the downtown core.  These drug addicts have compromised immune systems and live in close quarters and will not survive this virus.

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Posted (edited)
17 minutes ago, SBARC said:

 

The UK and North America were some of the last countries to be hit by the tsunami of this virus.  Wuhan was locked down Jan 23 (2 months ago).  When that happened and 5 million people spread from Wuhan to other parts of China, that was when other governments should have been checking their stock piles of PPE and shift into a quiet panic mode.  When China built a hospital in 1 week, that should have set off alarm bells in every government and every person on the planet.  Building a hospital in 1 week is not a common occurrence and should have made people everywhere sit up and take notice.

Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

When this virus first started remember, the WHO said that there was no possibility of human to human transmission, the only way you could get it was from eating bats. When word of the virus was first put out there was a lot of bad/conflicting info being put out, kind of hard to react to a situation when you don't have a clear picture of what is really going on.

Edited by GW8345

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8 minutes ago, GW8345 said:

Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

When this virus first started remember, the WHO said that there was no possibility of human to human transmission, the only way you could get it was from eating bats. When word of the virus was first put out there was a lot of bad/conflicting info being put out, kind of hard to react to a situation when you don't have a clear picture of what is really going on.

 

Once they built the hospital in 1 week in Wuhan, it was obvious this was not being spread from eating bats, because not that many people could be eating bats. 

 

Once it spread to the first country beyond China, that was proof this virus could visit any country.

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23 minutes ago, GW8345 said:

Hindsight is always 20/20.

 

When this virus first started remember, the WHO said that there was no possibility of human to human transmission, the only way you could get it was from eating bats. When word of the virus was first put out there was a lot of bad/conflicting info being put out, kind of hard to react to a situation when you don't have a clear picture of what is really going on.

 

BTW...if you want solid non-biased updates each day, then follow Dr John Campbell in the UK.  He provides medical advice to help beat this virus as well and daily situational update of this virus and it's progress globally.  He has been featured on various

US networks.

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg

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Posted (edited)

So what's happening here in the Lucky Country (Oz).

 

  • No grand pandemic plan in place (I can't believe this was not done decades ago), so the Govt are just making it up as they go
  • Non-essential interstate travel banned - state borders closed - sort of....
  • Cafes, restaurants, pools, gyms, beauty salons - anywhere with big social gatherings closed/prohibited
  • Urging people to work from home if they can, but not compulsory
  • Social distancing in action - though this rule was flouted big-time on Bondi Beach last weekend & the Prime Minister rightly cracked the shits and imposed stricter rules
  • Big welfare handouts/increases to the unemployed and business
  • Millions will lose their jobs (and our population is only 26M)
  • Someone (no one is accepting blame) let the Ruby Princess dock at Circular Quay (Sydney) last week and allowed all the passengers off after it had already been reported many were ill!  A huge proportion proportion of our infections have stemmed from that idiocy.  Our youngest daughter was walking to work when this happened and was right in the middle of them!  She is sick, but not Corona by the looks of it.
  • National sporting codes shut down - many may not survive financially
  • Testing only if you have likely symptoms
  • Elective surgery cancelled to free up medicos and hospital beds
  • Infection rate increasing rapidly - more than half the national infections are in my state (New South Wales)
  • Food & toilet paper hoarding occurring, but I think finally some common sense is happening and this is lessening
  • No run on guns and ammo because we have very strict gun laws, and in general don't run about shooting each other (well other than the foreign criminal gangs we've let in, and they largely shoot each other, so good riddance)
  • Airlines almost shut down and many will not survive
  • Many businesses will go out of business
  • Schools still open - a huge bone of contention, though many parents are keeping kids at home if they can
  • Our retirement plans have been smashed due to the stock market crash

On the plus side, I can still exercise in the park, ride my bikes, build models & go fishing.  It is very easy to do stuff in regional Australia and not come within 500m of another soul.

 

Oh, and we seem to be taking all our policy ques from New Zealand, who are well ahead of us in terms of shutdowns - a bit embarrassing really!

 

 

 

Edited by Thommo

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12 minutes ago, Thommo said:

On the plus side, I can still exercise in the park, ride my bikes, build models & go fishing.

 

Oh my, "go fishing". You know, its been SO long since I last went fishing. Used to love fishing. I never cared much if I caught anything, just the simple act of sitting quietly with the pole in my hands and the line in the water. Maybe a beer by my side, not a requirement though. How I'd love to go fishing again.

 

Sorry, that's just brought on a flood of memories. Sigh. Good ones though... :thumbsup2:

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The idea of having a boat and going out for a long sail up and down the coast of my country without going into any port anywhere and eating fresh seafood each day is quite appealing right now.  I do quite enjoy staying home and sleeping in with no alarm clocks to disturb us.

 

I do wonder if the cruise ship industry will ever recover from this?

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26 minutes ago, Mstor said:

 

Oh my, "go fishing". You know, its been SO long since I last went fishing. Used to love fishing. I never cared much if I caught anything, just the simple act of sitting quietly with the pole in my hands and the line in the water. Maybe a beer by my side, not a requirement though. How I'd love to go fishing again.

 

Sorry, that's just brought on a flood of memories. Sigh. Good ones though... :thumbsup2:

 

I'm a keen fly-fisher and also run a part-time business as a fly-fishing guide.

 

Here's a recent video of me doing 'social distancing' - fishing & mountain biking....and dodging a snake at the end!  I've recently discovered catching carp on fly (these are a pest in Oz so you have to kill them), it is absolutely fascinating....and tricky.  Hard to get them to eat the fly, then hard to land them once you do.

 

 

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3 hours ago, Thommo said:

 

I'm a keen fly-fisher and also run a part-time business as a fly-fishing guide.

 

Here's a recent video of me doing 'social distancing' - fishing & mountain biking....and dodging a snake at the end!  I've recently discovered catching carp on fly (these are a pest in Oz so you have to kill them), it is absolutely fascinating....and tricky.  Hard to get them to eat the fly, then hard to land them once you do.

 

 

Carp are pest pretty much everywhere. I think some cultures like to eat them, and yes, I remember them to be fighters once on the line. Always a disappointment when you finally reel it in and discover its a big honking carp. But, fun none the less. I was mostly after Walleye. Good eating, fewer bones than other varieties of Pike. In Arkansas I fished for Catfish. That's was a no brainer. Chicken livers on  a three prong hook with a weight to take it to the bottom. Didn't bother with a pole. Tied it off to a stake driven in the ground. Took only a few minutes before a Bullhead was dragging the line. Haul it in, re-bait the line and toss it back in. Repeat until you have enough for your evening meal. Good eating.

 

I tried fly fishing a few times. Never quite mastered it and never did it in a proper area. It was fun though. What's the saying, a bad day fishing is better than a good day at work, or some such.

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Actually the "pandemic" is rather mild and on the other hand world is falling into next crisis, approximately 3 times bigger than 2008. Well done.

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Ask those 500-800 dead per day (in Italy or Spain) how mild it is!

 

Best regards

Gabor 

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Posted (edited)

I don't think he was trying to downplay the deaths. Deaths are horrible and no matter the cause or anything, the families and those effected by death are dealing with tragedy. But if you compare the actual numbers of deaths from this (curently around 22,180) to something like the average flu death rate per year (between 291,000 & 646,000) it could appear to be mild. That's not to downplay the numbers and yes, this is still REALLY early to make a full fledged comparison. BUT it seems to be shaping up to be at least milder than some think. 

 

numbers based on these sources.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

Edited by niart17

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18 hours ago, SBARC said:

 

BTW...if you want solid non-biased updates each day, then follow Dr John Campbell in the UK.  He provides medical advice to help beat this virus as well and daily situational update of this virus and it's progress globally.  He has been featured on various

US networks.

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg

been watching him and the Med Cram videos. They are the 2 best. Peek prosperity was good also, but got too scary for me and stopped them. Only the Campbell and Medcram forms now. Also saw some leaked videos early on in China, apt. Building doors were being welded shut. Only a communist country could get away with that. Hope when this is over the good people of China will finally get their voices heard and some sort of new govt can be formed peacefully.

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ya-gabor said:

Ask those 500-800 dead per day (in Italy or Spain) how mild it is!

 

Best regards

Gabor 

https://www.euromomo.eu/

 

There is a great peak every year - a typical flu period. According to WHO every year 7000 to 22000 people of age 65+ die from flu in Italy.

 

Edited by Tapchan

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It is all a question of personal views and preferences on how one interprets data. Some people, some officials, some politicians have their own way of interpretation depending on their own wants.

 

Feel free to stone me but I was one of the first persons saying that “We should look at a Plan B or even cancelation of the Moson show” back in mid February. The organizers had no idea about this, no plans, they did not even think of such blasphemy.

 

If one looked at news coming out of China late January early February it was evident that this virus will end up in the rest of the world no matter what. The biggest European show with visitors from almost 50 countries would have been a perfect opportunity for “virus exchange”.  We announced the cancelling of the show on 9 th of March to come immediately under attack “this is just a flue”,  “it will be over by late April, so why” . . .

More than 100 Italian modellers were expected for this show just as in previous years. As well as from most European countries and the rest of the world including US.

 

Well one can judge today.

As I said feel free to stone me in public for warning the organizers. We did the right decission and most countries should have taken appropriate measures months ago! 

  

Best regards

Gabor

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I've never argued with cancelling non-crucial activities like such events. I am talking about economy, which will soon have great influence on our hobby. It's not any cheap now, in crisis it will be only reserved for those well situated, which I am not.

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For me, the fear mongering around covid is the worst. The number if people who are now getting a lower standard of medical treatment cause everything is focused is never reported. The economic impact is only beginning due to the unprecedented shut down of the economy. The mental impact to people who have now been isolated or who are too scared to go out will never be known. 
 

the number of people who will

die due to covid fallout (not directly from the virus but from its affect on society) will

be MUCH higher than from the actual disease. People who wont be able to afford food, lost jobs, homelessness, suicide,  medical complications due to shortages of supplies and manpower. 
 

we need to walk the middle road between protecting the medically vulnerable from this virus while also protecting the financial vulnerable from its effects. Overall, with 80 % or so of those infected showing no symptoms, so not being tested, this vastly skews the death rate higher ratios much higher than what isnactually happening. 
 

also. If someone does from bronchitis, or influenza while on chemo, its not really classifies as anything special. Covid while on chemo. Death due to covid. Sounds MUCH scarier

  

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1 hour ago, Tapchan said:

There is a great peak every year - a typical flu period. According to WHO every year 7000 to 22000 people of age 65+ die from flu in Italy.

 

So, in other words, what you're saying is that something else is behind this global event that has such a negative effect in everybody's lives?

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4 minutes ago, SERNAK said:

So, in other words, what you're saying is that something else is behind this global event that has such a negative effect in everybody's lives?

Yes, but not really sure if something of a great evil or 10000 small evils here and there. Like China saw great opportunity to kill the fire of increasing protests and push forward face scans, virologists (?) wanted to feel important and get some funds for their labs, newspapers love to spread panic, companies producing masks, and other needed equipment felt it's a great buisness, toilet paper producers wanted to feel like kings of life and politics... well, most of them listened to exagerrated breaking news and their advisors. And from step to step, like a giant snowball it grew to a great size, pushed independently by those, which each of wanted just to bake his own chicken over this fire. It went way too far.

Germany admitted, that they count every dead person with coronavirus as killed by it. WHO's data suggests on the other hand, that 99% of killed by coronavirus were suffering from heavy ilnesses like cancer, leukemia, heart and lungs heavy problems. Such persons may be killed by just typical flu. Momo shows no overgrown mortality. It is even lower, probably due to mild winter and...isolation. 

 

I completely agree with @martin_sam_2000. Nobody will count people dead from exagerrated panic. And would it be easy to explain a kid, why his parent commited suicide due to economic crisis? "You know, maybe we have a overreacted a bit, but world goes on, kid, at least we are safe from this kind of coronavirus".

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16 minutes ago, SERNAK said:

So, in other words, what you're saying is that something else is behind this global event that has such a negative effect in everybody's lives?

I think it's an unknown, and unknown things create uncertain strategies. I suspect (granted I'm a nobody when it comes to this) but I suspect that we're going to find out that a LOT more people had the infection and never knew it and recovered. I suspect the mortality rate is going to be MUCH less than initially anticipated. I think that's due to many things, among them under-reporting of information coming from China initially. I suspect we're going to find a huge number of people were in New York as early as Dec.-Jan. that have had this, thought it was the flu or a cold and recovered un-announced. We likely won't know that for some time but there are many sources of data that are supporting this theory. Can you blame some of these people for reacting with the amount of caution as they have when there is so little information out there? No, I think decisions are being made with what little is known and that could go either way. BUT you DO have to consider ALL potential positives and negatives when if comes to this. And I feel enough focus isn't being put on what the economic and other social downfalls are to the reaction we are currently having. Time will tell how "bad" this is. My gut (which means ZERO in reality) is that we will find the re-action to it will be much worse than the virus. That's not to say we shouldn't continue being careful. By all means, we're in it for good now. We pretty much have to see this through.

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The virus is already having a great influence on the modelling industry. For example the Moson show is a great event for manufacturers and they make a LOT of money at such events. And keep in mind that not only Moson went down the drains.

 

Sales are dropping partly due to the fact that a lot of people are fired and most certainly less (or none) money is available in family budget for hobbies.

 

Many kit releases have been delayed and postponed due to the virus, fewer buyers will also mean that some kit manufacturers will simply go out of business.  

 

Will the virus have an effect on the hobby? Most certainly! There is no question about this.  : (

Will we survive? Getiing in direction of 70 I am not sure. But in general sure (some) will survive and most have a fairly big stash to get through, so there is something to do in the next 224 or so years. : )

 

Best regards

Gabor

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In a typical flu season, I have never heard of hospitals being overrun with critical care patients needing respirators and doctors having to pick who lives or dies due to the high volume of patients needing to be put on ventilators.  If you leave society open as normal and let this virus run it's course, then you will get some accurate numbers to compare this to a regular flu season.

 

Where this story goes and what the final numbers are will depend on how well each country met this new challenge.  South Korea has been praised for their amazing response....as compared to the US.  Lets look at the numbers...from this source  https://wuflu.live/

 

US population 327 million   1067 dead    First reported case was Jan 15

S Korean population   51 million   131 dead     First reported case was Jan 20

 

If the US was to match S Korea then the US number (% of population) then the should only be 839, which is lower than the actual number in the USA, but not massively lower.  Remember the US got this virus 5 days BEFORE South Korea.  So compared to Korea, the USA is more or less matching them in you factor in the 5 day lag..

 

Lets compared the UK and Canada

UK population 66 million   478 dead    First reported case was Jan 31

Canada population   37 million   36 dead     First reported case was Jan 27

 

Canada got the Covid-19 virus 4 days before the UK

If the UK was to match Canada then the UK number (% of population) then the should only be 64, which is shockingly lower than the actual number in the UK by a massive amount.

 

It would be unfair to compare the UK and Canada to the USA or S Korea due to the different times Covid-19 arrived in each country (2 weeks makes a massive difference).

 

 

 

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