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Coronavirus affecting the hobby???

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But if you look at the number of cases/deaths per 1 mil. people you'll find that the rates are ALMOST exact. 3 deaths per million of population for both the U.S. and S. Korea and 208 per mil total cases in U.S. vs. 180 per mil in S. Korea, That kind of suggest that they are pretty close to on par with one another. True, there is a 5 day difference, that we know of. I still suspect we will find out that there were cases in the U.S. way before the reported date because those people never went reported and are over it. 

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4 minutes ago, niart17 said:

But if you look at the number of cases/deaths per 1 mil. people you'll find that the rates are ALMOST exact. 3 deaths per million of population for both the U.S. and S. Korea and 208 per mil total cases in U.S. vs. 180 per mil in S. Korea, That kind of suggest that they are pretty close to on par with one another. True, there is a 5 day difference, that we know of. I still suspect we will find out that there were cases in the U.S. way before the reported date because those people never went reported and are over it. 

 

If you consider the fact the USA got Covid-19 5 days before S Korea (according to Wikipedia) then I would say the USA is on Par with South Korea.  So the USA so-called horrible response doesn't seem all that bad.  It will be interesting to run all these numbers again in 2 weeks.

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Posted (edited)

Another thing that I'm curious to find out eventually is what percentage of the deaths attributed to Covid-19 would normally have crossed over to deaths from flu. If we find that the number of flu related deaths decreases this year at or about the same number as are attributed to Covid-19, AND they are of the same age/health goups. It may be that this is no different. It is odd that hospitals seemed to be overrun so quickly when the total numbers don't reflect they should be. I suppose its due to the quickness of the spread and not so much the total rate over time. No matter what, this is a bad situation for everyone. I pray we don't make it worse on ourselves by doing the wrong thing or not doing the right. Time will tell.

Edited by niart17

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29 minutes ago, SBARC said:

 

If you consider the fact the USA got Covid-19 5 days before S Korea (according to Wikipedia) then I would say the USA is on Par with South Korea.  So the USA so-called horrible response doesn't seem all that bad.  It will be interesting to run all these numbers again in 2 weeks.

 

But is the USA testing as much as S Korea? I'm not sure but would hazard to say, no. Without massive and widespread testing, you really don't have a handle on how widespread the virus is. As has been mentioned, many get a mild case, think it flu or a cold and just weather it on there own. They aren't reported and they may have been a virus vector, spreading it to many others. That's another reason testing is so critical, so that you can isolate anyone infected.

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Posted (edited)
9 minutes ago, Mstor said:

 

But is the USA testing as much as S Korea? I'm not sure but would hazard to say, no. Without massive and widespread testing, you really don't have a handle on how widespread the virus is. As has been mentioned, many get a mild case, think it flu or a cold and just weather it on there own. They aren't reported and they may have been a virus vector, spreading it to many others. That's another reason testing is so critical, so that you can isolate anyone infected.

I agree, we aren't testing much. which means only those that are really sick because of it are testing, and that means that the percentage of people dying from it is pretty much only based on those tested with the worst conditions. If we find out that a lot more people have it then initially suspected, that would in some ways be a good thing. Not saying it's good that they have it, but it would mean that it's not as deadly as originally thought Perhaps it's not any deadlier than the flu but rather just faster spreading than it. While that certainly can be a problem, it it's true, it's a much less problem than it could be. 

Edited by niart17

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5 hours ago, niart17 said:

I don't think he was trying to downplay the deaths. Deaths are horrible and no matter the cause or anything, the families and those effected by death are dealing with tragedy. But if you compare the actual numbers of deaths from this (curently around 22,180) to something like the average flu death rate per year (between 291,000 & 646,000) it could appear to be mild. That's not to downplay the numbers and yes, this is still REALLY early to make a full fledged comparison. BUT it seems to be shaping up to be at least milder than some think. 

 

numbers based on these sources.

https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2017/p1213-flu-death-estimate.html

 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/


You clearly don’t understand the severity of this. The death totals will be far greater than the rate of death by the flu. Emergency departments will be overrun if we don’t limit contact now.

 

I do think I know a thing or two about this. I currently work for the government in a level 4 containment lab.

 

Thinking it will be over by Easter is crazy talk.

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56 minutes ago, Mstor said:

 

But is the USA testing as much as S Korea? I'm not sure but would hazard to say, no. Without massive and widespread testing, you really don't have a handle on how widespread the virus is. As has been mentioned, many get a mild case, think it flu or a cold and just weather it on there own. They aren't reported and they may have been a virus vector, spreading it to many others. That's another reason testing is so critical, so that you can isolate anyone infected.

 

I do agree that testing is needed for many reasons.  It would be nice to test people so we can isolate the infected people so they can not pass it on to others, thus stopping the virus.  As I said, comparing the US and S Korean numbers in 2 weeks would be interesting to see if the numbers are still close together.

 

Dr John Campbell   https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCF9IOB2TExg3QIBupFtBDxg  was today talking about a low cost home test to see if you have already had the virus and if you have already had the virus and you are no immune, then you could go back into society and start working etc. Safe to say the older members of society should just hide out and isolate at home until a vaccine is available.

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Posted (edited)
40 minutes ago, Scooby said:


You clearly don’t understand the severity of this. The death totals will be far greater than the rate of death by the flu. Emergency departments will be overrun if we don’t limit contact now.

 

I do think I know a thing or two about this. I currently work for the government in a level 4 containment lab.

 

Thinking it will be over by Easter is crazy talk.

I do have a sense of the severity, but NOBODY has a real sense of it YET. It's too early to make any claims that it will do worse than the flu. I'm not saying we shouldn't be taking it serious and doing what we are doing, and possibly more. But the estimates from scientists and statisticians are all over the place. Currently it's about the 49th highest cause of death in China so far this year, and somewhere around 19th if I recall in the hotspot area of Wuhan. One study said millions will die and then came back and said that the actual number may really be in the 100's of thousands. That's the same source with a huge swing of estimates. That should tell you that MUCH more data is needed to make and kind of claim.

 

But on the converse of that, the economic effects of this are also equally unknown. And there is no way to compare that to any other situation because it has never happened like this. I am only suggesting that the problem needs to be addressed with balance from both sides. Some people, usually those in the fields of infectious disease study, are saying we shouldn't care at all about the economy. That is crazy talk. It is very much a real concern. Put the world in a serious depression and the effects will be felt for a very very long time.

Edited by niart17

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1 hour ago, niart17 said:

I do have a sense of the severity, but NOBODY has a real sense of it YET. It's too early to make any claims that it will do worse than the flu. I'm not saying we shouldn't be taking it serious and doing what we are doing, and possibly more. But the estimates from scientists and statisticians are all over the place. Currently it's about the 49th highest cause of death in China so far this year, and somewhere around 19th if I recall in the hotspot area of Wuhan. One study said millions will die and then came back and said that the actual number may really be in the 100's of thousands. That's the same source with a huge swing of estimates. That should tell you that MUCH more data is needed to make and kind of claim.

 

But on the converse of that, the economic effects of this are also equally unknown. And there is no way to compare that to any other situation because it has never happened like this. I am only suggesting that the problem needs to be addressed with balance from both sides. Some people, usually those in the fields of infectious disease study, are saying we shouldn't care at all about the economy. That is crazy talk. It is very much a real concern. Put the world in a serious depression and the effects will be felt for a very very long time.

 

I do not think you can believe any of the government numbers coming out of China.  There are still reports by netizens in China that people with the virus going to the hospitals but they are not being admitted or tested, simply sent home.  Speculation is a second wave is coming but the second wave will be blamed on people that came home from other countries, thus infecting China with the virus from other countries.  At least this will be the story fed to the average citizen in China by the CCP.  Of course this makes no senses to us because all people returning to China are put in forced quarantine in government chosen hotels at the travelers expense. 

 

The economic effect of this virus will be managed by lifting the lockdown and then imposing lockdowns in certain hot spots until a vaccine is eventually released.  Considering the vaccines are skipping animal trials, it would not surprise me if a vaccine was released late this year.  Also massive numbers of people will be tested to see if the had the virus and are immune to it and thus able to work without being infected.  Those immune workers will jump start the economy while the older folks stay home and avoid any contact until a vaccine is made available.

 

So I suspect it will be a combination of things as we muddle through this situation while keeping most people safe and not trashing the economy..

 

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1 hour ago, niart17 said:

I do have a sense of the severity, but NOBODY has a real sense of it YET. It's too early to make any claims that it will do worse than the flu. I'm not saying we shouldn't be taking it serious and doing what we are doing, and possibly more. But the estimates from scientists and statisticians are all over the place. Currently it's about the 49th highest cause of death in China so far this year, and somewhere around 19th if I recall in the hotspot area of Wuhan. One study said millions will die and then came back and said that the actual number may really be in the 100's of thousands. That's the same source with a huge swing of estimates. That should tell you that MUCH more data is needed to make and kind of claim.

 

But on the converse of that, the economic effects of this are also equally unknown. And there is no way to compare that to any other situation because it has never happened like this. I am only suggesting that the problem needs to be addressed with balance from both sides. Some people, usually those in the fields of infectious disease study, are saying we shouldn't care at all about the economy. That is crazy talk. It is very much a real concern. Put the world in a serious depression and the effects will be felt for a very very long time.

 
lt is without a doubt far worse than the flu.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, niart17 said:

.....only those that are really sick because of it are testing, and that means that the percentage of people dying from it is pretty much only based on those tested with the worst conditions.


This is absolutely untrue. 
 

The only firm criteria for testing right now is a fever at or above 99.6 F, and even then there are additional criteria for qualifying for extremely limited testing resources. 
 

How in the world can you claim only the “really sick”are tested if the only way to tell if the are “really sick” is to test them?   If you already knew they were “really sick” then the test is superfluous.  

Edited by habu2

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3 hours ago, habu2 said:


This is absolutely untrue. 
 

The only firm criteria for testing right now is a fever at or above 99.6 F, and even then there are additional criteria for qualifying for extremely limited testing resources. 
 

How in the world can you claim only the “really sick”are tested if the only way to tell if the are “really sick” is to test them?   If you already knew they were “really sick” then the test is superfluous.  

It most certainly was true up until more recently when more test are now available. The initial phase of testing was only being performed on those people showing symptoms,  that were already tested negative for flu and were having the more extreme breathing issues. They have now relaxed those standards but it certainly was the case up until the last several days. That's is my point. Once we start testing more people with the more minor symptoms it's likely we might find more people catch it and survive. That's why I believe there have been a huge amount of people that have already recovered and didn't even know they had it.

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3 hours ago, Scooby said:

 
lt is without a doubt far worse than the flu.

It will without a doubt have a more devastating effect on the planet than the flu, that is the ONLY certainty. Weather the worst of the effect is the virus itself or the financial and sociological destruction is yet to be seen. Even the experts that are most concerned of the virus are saying the same thing. 

 

You guys think I'm saying we shouldn't be taking it seriously. That is not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying we still don't know how bad the virus itself will be. To make claims of it being a more deadly virus than the flu at this phase is foolish. Just as foolish as saying it definitely isn't. We don't know yet!

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2 hours ago, niart17 said:

It will without a doubt have a more devastating effect on the planet than the flu, that is the ONLY certainty. Weather the worst of the effect is the virus itself or the financial and sociological destruction is yet to be seen. Even the experts that are most concerned of the virus are saying the same thing. 

 

You guys think I'm saying we shouldn't be taking it seriously. That is not what I'm saying at all. I'm saying we still don't know how bad the virus itself will be. To make claims of it being a more deadly virus than the flu at this phase is foolish. Just as foolish as saying it definitely isn't. We don't know yet!

 

Lets ponder Italy...712 souls succumbed in the past day of a total population of 60 million ( https://wuflu.live/ )

Lets ponder Spain...718 souls succumbed in the past day of a total population of 46 million ( https://wuflu.live/ )

 

If the US gets as bad as Spain you would have 5,104 people dying in 1 day....that is a death rate in the USA of 153,121 in 30 days.

How long does the flu season last...more than 30 days?  A 5 month flu season could see 765,606 deaths if you use the number from Spain as a guide.

 

The number of 5,104 deaths in the US each day is what would happen if this virus was permitted to run wild without social distancing and people staying home etc.  Now a fair argument could be made for the fact that the flu deaths are limited due to widespread flu vaccine given to mostly older folks.

 

No matter how you run the numbers on this bug....it is scary.  I am not afraid of the flu but this bug and it's ability to spread scares me very much.

 

252 American died in the past 24 hours....at the very least this bug deserves plenty of respect.

 

 

 

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On 3/1/2020 at 2:53 AM, John Tapsell said:

 

Telford is the show I help to organise and run. No plans to change anything at the moment but we'll keep an eye on how things play out over the next few months.

 

John

 Its bad timing on my part to actually start getting back into the hobby, lol.  

 

    The UK is only a 7 hr plane ride from my spot the desert, and Telford is on my bucket list. I was planning to be there this year, with a dual flash unit and a high quality 50mm lens to improve on my model photography skills.  I was at the Nats in Orlando, and I see where I can make improvements to my images through different equipment and technique.  If not this year, Telford 2021 then.

   

 

 

 

 

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, SBARC said:

 

Lets ponder Italy...712 souls succumbed in the past day of a total population of 60 million ( https://wuflu.live/ )

Lets ponder Spain...718 souls succumbed in the past day of a total population of 46 million ( https://wuflu.live/ )

 

If the US gets as bad as Spain you would have 5,104 people dying in 1 day....that is a death rate in the USA of 153,121 in 30 days.

How long does the flu season last...more than 30 days?  A 5 month flu season could see 765,606 deaths if you use the number from Spain as a guide.

 

The number of 5,104 deaths in the US each day is what would happen if this virus was permitted to run wild without social distancing and people staying home etc.  Now a fair argument could be made for the fact that the flu deaths are limited due to widespread flu vaccine given to mostly older folks.

 

No matter how you run the numbers on this bug....it is scary.  I am not afraid of the flu but this bug and it's ability to spread scares me very much.

 

252 American died in the past 24 hours....at the very least this bug deserves plenty of respect.

 

 

 

 

You have captured the essence of it quite well Steve. Without social distancing, this will quickly get out of hand and I fear for myself and everyone else.  Even with it, it will most likely get very bad. I'm scared. I don't want to go out, but I have to, to get medicines, certain necessities (T-paper is only being sold in store by the grocery store, they won't deliver it.)  I'm in the high risk category. If I get sick, my lady friend won't be able to take care of herself. Jesus, this whole thing has got me freaked out. And here people are arguing over whether its more important to keep the economy going or social distance. As if human life is some quantity to be weighed and measured in some equation.

Edited by Mstor

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On Wednesday March 25, our riverbank farm burg's local newspaper (which is no longer produced locally) had buried, hidden?, on page 11 of its 12 pages (that means the next to last page) an article that a visitor to the casino in town had tested positive for COVID-19. The County Health Department is reported as not giving which state or county the person resides in but only that they visited the casino the morning of March 17.
It also doesn't say When the person tested positive.

This town has a population below 9,000 and is only about 3 miles across from west to east or north to south.

 

Printed on the next to last page, eh, I wonder how far they were from choosing to not print it at all ...

 

 

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1 hour ago, Mstor said:

As if human life is some quantity to be weighed and measured in some equation.

If human life is merely a random accident of evolution and is a purely materialistic thing with no greater reason, or purpose, or future, then why should human life be anything more than just another material commodity to be weighed and measured?

 

tl;dr, Philosophies/worldviews have consequences.

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16 minutes ago, southwestforests said:

If human life is merely a random accident of evolution and is a purely materialistic thing with no greater reason, or purpose, or future, then why should human life be anything more than just another material commodity to be weighed and measured?

 

tl;dr, Philosophies/worldviews have consequences.

 

Some people believe that all human life is precious, that all life, in fact, is precious.

 

Silly idea. Where people come up with such weird notions I'll never know.

 

tl;dr, yes, they certainly do have consequences.

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I have just received the following SMS from the World Health Organisation, "Modelers have been asked not to add more than one kit per week to the stash, until further notice." (Just kidding!!!)

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4 hours ago, Mstor said:

 

You have captured the essence of it quite well Steve. Without social distancing, this will quickly get out of hand and I fear for myself and everyone else.  Even with it, it will most likely get very bad. I'm scared. I don't want to go out, but I have to, to get medicines, certain necessities (T-paper is only being sold in store by the grocery store, they won't deliver it.)  I'm in the high risk category. If I get sick, my lady friend won't be able to take care of herself. Jesus, this whole thing has got me freaked out. And here people are arguing over whether its more important to keep the economy going or social distance. As if human life is some quantity to be weighed and measured in some equation.

I'm sorry if you've taken my post to mean that I'm suggesting not to social distance and that this isn't a very scary thing. It is. I am worried for you and your loved ones as much as I am for everybody on the planet. It's bad and I'm praying for everyone! I'm just suggesting that there has to be balance or the deaths are going to be much much higher in the long run. Please accept my apology if sounded like I'm putting some measurement on the lives of some over others. Nothing could be further from the truth. I'm suggesting that a world-wide panic and economic melt-down would lead to the deaths of many many more. Surely those deaths are just as scary as the ones from the virus aren't they? This isn't someone saying worry about a 401K or a investment portfolio. I'm saying without a measured response that takes ALL aspects in to account, finding toilet paper is going to be a distant memory. Finding food to live is going to become a reality. And those that are most at risk from the virus will also be most at risk from a total global economic melt-down. That's all I'm saying. Please continue to take this serious!

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3 hours ago, niart17 said:

I'm sorry if you've taken my post to mean that I'm suggesting not to social distance and that this isn't a very scary thing. It is. I am worried for you and your loved ones as much as I am for everybody on the planet. It's bad and I'm praying for everyone! I'm just suggesting that there has to be balance or the deaths are going to be much much higher in the long run. Please accept my apology if sounded like I'm putting some measurement on the lives of some over others. Nothing could be further from the truth. I'm suggesting that a world-wide panic and economic melt-down would lead to the deaths of many many more. Surely those deaths are just as scary as the ones from the virus aren't they? This isn't someone saying worry about a 401K or a investment portfolio. I'm saying without a measured response that takes ALL aspects in to account, finding toilet paper is going to be a distant memory. Finding food to live is going to become a reality. And those that are most at risk from the virus will also be most at risk from a total global economic melt-down. That's all I'm saying. Please continue to take this serious!

 

Not to worry. I didn't take it that way and I certainly hope that no one here would put their money ahead of people's lives. (I know, there are always a few). It was a different post that got my ire up. :explode:

Its just that right now, I believe the focus must be on saving lives. Steps are being taken to prop up the economy too. Hopefully they will be enough to get us through the worst of this crisis. The economy can be rebuilt, lost lives cannot.

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5 hours ago, SERNAK said:

I have just received the following SMS from the World Health Organisation, "Modelers have been asked not to add more than one kit per week to the stash, until further notice." (Just kidding!!!)

 

Oh my, this will be hard, but I'm willing to sacrifice for the good of all. Now, does this apply to aftermarket supplies too? That's one restriction that I may have a problem with. Plus, I want to do my part to keep the economy going. Is it not our civic duty? Most of the aftermarket makers are individuals working hard to make ends meet. We must support them.

 

I started this reply out as a "silly" reply, but the more I think about it, the more it makes sense to try to support some of our aftermarket guys. Now I wouldn't want them to have to go out to get raw materials or go to the post office. But, if we can keep some cash flow going for them, it might be helpful.

 

I just realized I am talking myself into a justification for spending more money of model stuff. Sounds good enough to me. :naughty:

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Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Mstor said:

I just realized I am talking myself into a justification for spending more money of model stuff. Sounds good enough to me. :naughty:

You're not the only one Mark!!!

 

And you're right about the companies that produce aftermarket sets. I'm also willing to support them (I have a few 1/48 sets in my mind) but, I'm hesitating because it means that I will have to use a pair of gloves to unbox whatever aftermarket set I buy from the ones I keep for airbrushing my models!!!

 

I know, it sounds silly but, in difficult times you have to count everything twice!!! 

Edited by SERNAK
Just to add a few more things

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I am afraid the incoming economic crisis is going to be of size of 1929 or bigger. In Europe we better save our money for hard times rather than spending it on aftermarket. 

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