Russian 5th Generation Fighter

[Zmey Smirnoff]

I think the key point here is how many new systems have been mass produced/fielded? The Yak aside, Russia has popped out some really interesting prototypes, but there is a big difference between wheeling out a couple new Super Flankers every few years and actually being able to mass produce and field/sustain them.

In our topsy turvey bizarro world of now, the West has the numbers...

Should we count Su-30MKI/MKA/MK2/MKwhatever, successfully produced and fielded? Yes sure, West has the numbers. West didnt have 2 crippling political and economic crises and 2 devastating wars on OWN territory. West is awesome, we get it. But Russian aviation industry, desipite all the problems is producing and fielding new aircraft that USSR did not. USSR could have, if it would have survived. But it didnt, so it didnt. There is no logical reason to divide aircraft technology in Soviet and post-Soviet. Its designed by same people, in the same buildings, in same towns, for same purposes. Communism (lets assume USSR was communist for the ease of comprehension at the cost of accuracy) is just a political and economic system, not a blanket concept that can be applied to things unrelated to politics. The only thing that changed with collapse of USSR is funding, which affected the numbers. Russian aviation technology did not became suddenly inferior to Soviet just because there is no more Lenin on the rubles. In fact, with the ability to instroduce and intergrate Western technology where needed, certain things imporoved since Soviet times.

[Zmey Smirnoff]

Talking about the Mig-1.44, I wonder why the program was abandoned. My gut feeling is that it can achieve 50% level of stealth of the F-22 and having a RCS similar to the latest Mig-21 bison. This will give the 1.44 enough advantage to engage the F-22 in close distance.

The purpose of PAK FA program is to create an aircraft equal or better than F-22, not 50% worse. If PAK FA is not equal or better than F-22, then the program has failed and has to be re-done. Which is what 1.44 did, and that is why its a relic now. The lack of funding prevented MiG from improving on it and effectively pushed MiG out of PAK FA game.

[Berkut]

but there is a big difference between wheeling out a couple new Super Flankers every few years and actually being able to mass produce and field/sustain them.

Then we might count how many Flankers have been exported/produced vs how many F-22's are build. I honestly don't see your point. The number of Su-30's that have been produced just shows that russian aviation, and Sukhoi in particular are capable to produce numbers needed on marked.

Will PAK-FA be a step up, and needing more demanding production methods? Of course.

[MarkW]

Ok, I must have touched a nerve. For the record, I am not debating Communism or the rehabilitation of Stalin's image. And from a western perspective, the Russians have been scary good at designing some very capable systems on par with or superior to the West's best. I am not in any suggesting Russia does not have world class aeronautical and electrical engineers--we got the mathematical basis for stealth from them.

But, and it is a big but, comparing fielding the SU-30 to the F-22 is like comparing fielding the F-16 Block 52 to the F-22. And while the Russians have updated and created excellent derivatives of the basic Flanker (and Fulcrum to a lesser extent), Europe has spat out two new 4th gen fighters, and the US one. That is a relevant point of comparison.

So what is my point? In very blunt terms, you can't slap together a 5th gen fighter like you can a 4th gen. This is much harder than most people who aren't involved in the design and production of 5th gens realize. The tolerance issues that Typhoon alone has encountered would have killed that as a stealthy platform. There are many more considerations that the Russians will discover along the way that are unique to their design. Again, I am not impugning Russian design house prowess. But, given they seem more resource constrained than the past, they could run into some real challenges.

I do find it somewhat amusing, on a lighter note, that people automatically assume Russian aviation will produce something stellar the first time they try it while simultaneously poo-poo the US in the same endeavor. Even though we've been doing this stuff non stop for over 30 years!

[11bee]

Airframe is the most important part in this entire project. Russia has plenty of experience building engines, missiles and radars. Its stealth airframe that might give us pause, not the "stuffings".

I think you may be a bit off on that statement. If this is truly a 5th generation fighter (I am not sure it really is), The most challenging part of the project will be the avionics, networking support and systems integration. Go ask the folks behind the F-22 and 35 what gave them the hardest time to perfect. I don't think either company will tell you that it was the airframe or engine. It is not that difficult to whip up a flyable stealth airframe (look how quickly the YF-22 and YF-23's were built). What takes many years is going from that stage to a fully operational aircraft, in production.

I will be surprised if this thing is operational, in significant numbers before 2020.

Edited December 23, 2009 by 11bee

[Zmey Smirnoff]

For the record, I am not debating Communism or the rehabilitation of Stalin's image.

Eh. Good. Because no one else either.

And from a western perspective, the Russians have been scary good at designing some very capable systems on par with or superior to the West's best. I am not in any suggesting Russia does not have world class aeronautical and electrical engineers--we got the mathematical basis for stealth from them.

You didnt. Jeff did. I replied to Jeff.

But, and it is a big but, comparing fielding the SU-30 to the F-22 is like comparing fielding the F-16 Block 52 to the F-22. And while the Russians have updated and created excellent derivatives of the basic Flanker (and Fulcrum to a lesser extent), Europe has spat out two new 4th gen fighters, and the US one. That is a relevant point of comparison.

OK. Does that make it Su-30 any less of a capable 4th gen fighter? If I count right, Europe spat out 3 new 4th gen fighter. Because they needed and could afford 3 new fighters. Russia is just one country. A poor one at that. Russia produced Su-30 mods that are on par if not superior to any other 4th gen fighter on the planet. Does Russia need to produce more than the West or the rest of the world? I dont understant where you are going with this "point of comparison".

So what is my point? In very blunt terms, you can't slap together a 5th gen fighter like you can a 4th gen. This is much harder than most people who aren't involved in the design and production of 5th gens realize. The tolerance issues that Typhoon alone has encountered would have killed that as a stealthy platform. There are many more considerations that the Russians will discover along the way that are unique to their design. Again, I am not impugning Russian design house prowess. But, given they seem more resource constrained than the past, they could run into some real challenges.

Ah, OK got it. You know something about 5th gen design that nobody in Russia knows. I'll call KNAAPO and tell them to stop using mud and bear fur while slapping together a PAK FA. Thanks for bringing it up.

I do find it somewhat amusing, on a lighter note, that people automatically assume Russian aviation will produce something stellar the first time they try it while simultaneously poo-poo the US in the same endeavor. Even though we've been doing this stuff non stop for over 30 years!

I find it amusing that you imply that Russians dont know what they are doing, while you do.

[Zmey Smirnoff]

I think you may be a bit off on that statement. If this is truly a 5th generation fighter (I am not sure it really is), The most challenging part of the project will be the avionics, networking support and systems integration. Go ask the folks behind the F-22 and 35 what gave them the hardest time to perfect. I don't think either company will tell you that it was the airframe or engine. It is not that difficult to whip up a flyable stealth airframe (look how quickly the YF-22 and YF-23's were built). What takes many years is going from that stage to a fully operational aircraft, in production.

I will be surprised if this thing is operational, in significant numbers before 2020.

You are forgetting that F-22 was not the first stealth aiframe US has produced. PAK FA is the first 5th gen in Russia (whethere you really sure or not). Networking and avionics arent easy, but that challenge will come later. After the stealth airframe flies.

[janman]

I do find it somewhat amusing, on a lighter note, that people automatically assume Russian aviation will produce something stellar the first time they try it while simultaneously poo-poo the US in the same endeavor.

I myself don't assume anything, but think about the F-15. The state-of-the-art fighter aircraft when it was introduced with all the newest hi-tech inside. The best in the world. Then came the Su-27, which was even better. So the Russians really have done it before. Why not now?

[MarkW]

Zmey: Might be a language issue, but you totally misread my post. You are creating offense where there is none. Please stop being so defensive, and try reading what I wrote again. I wasn't even talking about you, for crying out loud!

I think I have made it clear I believe Russia is capable of doing this. But I also believe some of the predictions of how fast and exactly what capabilities they can deliver are optimistic. That you keep insisting the airframe is the hard part indicates to me that your experience is exactly opposite of my ~20 years in this particular business.

I myself don't assume anything, but think about the F-15. The state-of-the-art fighter aircraft when it was introduced with all the newest hi-tech inside. The best in the world. Then came the Su-27, which was even better. So the Russians really have done it before. Why not now?

Interesting thought, and for the fifteenth million time, no argument that Russia has stellar aero engineering. Sure, the Su-27 is superior to an original A model Eagle. But not so sure that holds for the latest upgrade C model. So, within 4th gen aircraft there are gaps and leaps, but they never leave the 4th gen box no matter how many +++++ you put on it. 5th gen is more than stealth, and more than parity. Until Pak-FA can combines all the elements, you can't call it done.

[Berkut]

So, within 4th gen aircraft there are gaps and leaps, but they never leave the 4th gen box no matter how many +++++ you put on it.

Might i ask how many planes have done that, and that are in service? ;) *

* One. F-22

PS: While we are discussing things we have no idea about, PAK-FA actually rolled out today.

Edited December 23, 2009 by Berkut

[Trigger]

(I'm going to regret getting in this, but that last post just begs the question...)

So, within 4th gen aircraft there are gaps and leaps, but they never leave the 4th gen box no matter how many +++++ you put on it.

Might i ask how many planes have done that, and that are in service? ;) *

* One. F-22

Huh?

Edited December 23, 2009 by Trigger

[Berkut]

Huh? :blink:

He is saying that planes dont leave 4 gen box no matter how many pluses you add. So i asked him, how many planes are actually 5 gen right now. (and operational) The answer is one.

Btw, the rollout is confirmed by a person who actually works at KNAAPO.

http://www.sukhoi.ru/forum/showthread.php?...03&page=194

[Trigger]

OK. From your reply, it appeared that you were referring to the -22 as a 4th Gen (Plus).

[Jeff]

... The most challenging part of the project will be the avionics, networking support and systems integration. Go ask the folks behind the F-22 and 35 what gave them the hardest time to perfect...

This is exactly what's in my mind and try to say. Given a scenerio without AWACS support, for a stealth aircraft, how can you detect your enemy without revealing your position? You cannot use active radar since the enemy will pick up the direction of the source of transmission and become aware of the vacanity of the stealth aircraft. Another difficulty is how to obtain BVR missile lock in a stealth aircraft on the enemy. Noone exactly knows how the F-22 or F-35 does it, but certainly it is a major obstacle.

[Jeff]

Hey, I didn't see Russia is inferior in aero design or whatever. I like Russian aircraft and building scale models of them. However, I am worried the brain drain in Russia will put a major drag on major technological developments like the PAK FA!

Edited December 24, 2009 by Jeff

[Zmey Smirnoff]

Zmey: Might be a language issue, but you totally misread my post. You are creating offense where there is none. Please stop being so defensive, and try reading what I wrote again. I wasn't even talking about you, for crying out loud!

Must be. Because I honestly dont know where you are getting this.

I think I have made it clear I believe Russia is capable of doing this. But I also believe some of the predictions of how fast and exactly what capabilities they can deliver are optimistic. That you keep insisting the airframe is the hard part indicates to me that your experience is exactly opposite of my ~20 years in this particular business.

Its not about me or my experience. I am willing to bet, however, that Sukhoi design team knows what they are doing. I will say it again, on the off chance its a "language issue". RIGHT NOW airframe is the major concern for PAK FA program. Networks, sensor emersion, datalinks and weapon systems can be improved infinitely. But stealthy airframe is pass or fail deal. If they roll out the airframe tomorrow and its a dud with obvious non-stealth features, it doesnt matter how long it will take to iron out the avionics - the program will fail. If, however, PAK FA is a LO plane, then it doesnt matter if avionics arent ready yet - eventually they will be. Do you understand what I am saying?

But not so sure that holds for the latest upgrade C model. So, within 4th gen aircraft there are gaps and leaps, but they never leave the 4th gen box no matter how many +++++ you put on it. 5th gen is more than stealth, and more than parity. Until Pak-FA can combines all the elements, you can't call it done.

I think we all know how Su-30MKI holds up to late model F-15.

[Sebastijan]

and considering the fact that data-linking has been done before (Ka-50 attack helicopter for instance and probably SU30MK series aswell) and the fact that Russians were practicing passive detection the last few decades I don't doubt they have the know-how to make this bird operational in a reasonable amount of time . Even some known experience with RAM (Tu-160 intakes for example) and only God knows how many experimental programmes we don't know about.

[ross blackford]

:D,With all this talk about the PAK-FA's looks, equipment and capabilities let's not forget that not one of us on this forum really knows what these parameters are. I've read a lot of speculation from a lot of our readers. I'll repeat, none of us really knows any of these parameters are but Zmey and our other Russian readers would be the closest of our readers to know the culture and ablilites of the scientists and engineers working on the PAK-FA program. Some of the comments I've read in this thread sound like they came from a drunken sailor standing on the bow of a ship making 30 knots and urinating into a 30 knot headwind. Oh, and just to clarify, I'm a non drinker.

I've read a lot of posts in this and other threads regarding details of the aircraft even down to the type and shape of the exhausts. There have been (supposed) images that have eminated (supposedly) from the Sukhoi Design Bureau. Unless these readers and image disseminators are working on the project it's all pure (or more likely impure) speculation. It's reported that the first prototype is now at Zhukowski. We can bet London to a brick it didn't get there from the Sukhoi Design Bureau in one piece on the back of an open flat top truck in broad daylight and it would be under heavy guard 24/7 in its hangar. I don't believe that the Russian Government or Sukhoi would be stupid enough to telegraph their intentions on the capabilities or shape of this aircraft which is so crucial to their country's future defence and prosperity.

Why don't we all just stop the speculation and wait for the thing to fly. And one more small thing; if one of these advanced aircraft crashes during testing we can expect a torrent of criticism from certain western 'knowledgeable observers' on these forums along the "I told you so" lines, and especially if someone is killed. Has not at least one F-22 test machine crashed killing the pilot? Was there any comment on the abilities of that aircraft in these forums from those same 'knowledgeable observers'? Not that I read anywhere here there wasn't. And yes, I did feel sad for the family of the pilot who lost his precious life in that crash. We simply don't know so perhaps we should all just put our smoking guns back in their holsters and wait for the first flight, which may be as soon as a few weeks or months away.

,

Ross.

Edited December 24, 2009 by ross blackford

[GreyGhost]

<.....>

Why don't we all just stop the speculation and wait for the thing to fly. And one more small thing; if one of these advanced aircraft crashes during testing we can expect a torrent of criticism from certain western 'knowledgeable observers' on these forums along the "I told you so" lines, and especially if someone is killed. Has not at least one F-22 test machine crashed killing the pilot? Was there any comment on the abilities of that aircraft in these forums from those same 'knowledgeable observers'? Not that I read anywhere here there wasn't. And yes, I did feel sad for the family of the pilot who lost his precious life in that crash. We simply don't know so perhaps we should all just put our smoking guns back in their holsters and wait for the first flight, which may be as soon as a few weeks or months away.

:D,

Ross.

The underscored is a bit of speculation in itself isn't it Ross ... Duly unfair too ...

-Gregg

[Zmey Smirnoff]

The underscored is a bit of speculation in itself

More like sure bet, GG. Just like there were plenty of hecklers when F-22 crashed. Probably not on this forum though.

Edited December 24, 2009 by Zmey Smirnoff

[Pirata]

Optimus Pak Fa wishes you all a Merry Christmas!

He is stealthily disguised as Santa Claus.

[GreyGhost]

More like sure bet, GG. Just like there were plenty of hecklers when F-22 crashed. Probably not on this forum though.

Yes, maybe so but Ross did direct his comment to the membership here ...

Gregg

[Berkut]

Yes, maybe so but Ross did direct his comment to the membership here ...

Gregg

Doesn't matter, because he is right, it will happen. (the comments in case of a crash) But seems my news have been buried, i repeat:

PAK-FA did a test run on the runway! :huh:

No pics until maiden flight according to the source.

[GreyGhost]

Well, I haven't read anyone saying that it will crash to be able to say "I told you so ..." :huh:

That would be just cold and callous ... regardless of who's aircraft is being spoken about ... ;)

Gregg

[Zmey Smirnoff]

Anyway, Russian news sources have confirmed the first taxi tests at KNAAPO. I think its time to put the bickering aside and move into the new "PAK FA is here" era together. As friends. I think I'll start the new thread.