F-35 news roundup

[TaiidanTomcat]

We will await what the new Federal Govt. will do concerning our next combat jet. If F-35 is the be all, and not just for providing 25-30-35 years of RCAF service but also with LM better to best industrial spin offs for Canada, well if the price can be swallowed the new govt. will have to put it on the top pedestal regardless of what they have said when in opposition and campaigning. DnD and Industry Canada bureaucrats along with LM an any other competitors will each try to sell their wares. PM Trudeau will have to be open minded to turn away from the politics of electioneering and towards what may be best for the RCAF and Canadian aerospace industry. If in the end it is F-35 well he will probably have DnD buy it.

I sure hope.

Of course the other competitors will sell their aircraft and spin offs to us as well. Look, none of these choices are JUNK! They are all capable combat planes that will and are serving in other airforces for decades to come. Of course not taking F-35 means that Boeing probably has the best next shot in F-18E/F Super Hornet, maybe F-15 SE. Boeing would probably be the easiest to grant industrial spin offs to Canadian industry, many who probably are and would be on board as sub contractors to F-35 anyways. I'm not making any choice here but noting that Super Hornet would be the easiest alternative to F-35 and quickest to get into service choice for the RCAF.

I agree that the Super Hornet is the next in line, however its a pretty well established airplane Boeing has built (last I checked) about 6oo Super Hornets and Growlers I would say the production suppliers are pretty well established and not going to Canada. Its a question of what other projects (example AIRLINERS) that Boeing could spin to Canada.

as for JUNK, if the F-35 lives up to the hype, and if it truly is a revolution as a lot of people are saying it is, its a huge change from what was considered "acceptable" previously. If canada lacks that ability, its going to be secondary roles from here until the end. (which seems to be the point of this "no first day" concept in some ways)

This said if one believes Dassault, the promises they make for us taking Rafale are big ones too. But "Frenchy" jet does not as easy fit into Canada's joint role of aerospace defence of North America as a "Yankee" jet can. But Rafale has and does inter operate with coalition forces in combat zones, so it would not be totally alien.

It would require a lot of changes in Canada, ordnance for example. That or Canada would have to pay to get the integration with the weapons and systems its currently uses. Rafale is not "plug and play" to the extent the Yankee/(NATO?) jets are. There are fewer than 150 Rafales built right now. they build at the rate of about 2 a month. There are already more F-35s built in fact.

Eurofighter Typhoon is a great 21st century combat jet but it ain't cheap either and my gut tells me the industrial spin offs will be much fewer as the consortium building it is kind of entrenched in its bureaucracy and like to sell finished jets abroad. Thus its foreign sales are not stunning.

Foriegn sales are far more impressive than the Rafale or Super Hornet. I agree about the cost though. plus I would be shocked to see it picked really, its clearly far too aggressive/first day.

SAAB Gripen NG, is a great and IMO best looking (lil) 21st century jet, but industrial spin offs will probably be fewer too and not as long term. From what I read it does look to be able to integrate well in coalition campaigns, but it too is a single engine jet (if that is a concern for some) but one with an excellent jet engine. It may be the cheapest one, to buy outright, who knows? But a decision is more than just an off the rack purchase.

Gripen NG still hasn't flown its first flight. Its engine may be reliable but its tiny: F414 dry thrust = 57.8 kN compared to CF-18 F404 X2 dry thrust= 97.8 kN. As for cost, we shall see. I don't think either production line is going to top 200 units total. Thats bad in terms of learning curves and cost savings.

WHO THE 'BLEEP' KNOWS! The new Federal Government, DnD and Industry Canada will work through all the selling with the facts, story spinning, half truths and lies that come from selling. Combine such with the list of industrial spin offs, to then said decision for the RCAF will see them get new combat jets hopefully sooner than later. Other than that at a place like this forum it's all just 'WATER COOLER TALK'

I don't know what decision Canada will make in the end. However like Dutycat alluded to we do know the competitors at this point. The Gripen NG is the biggest question mark. the rest is very well known, well trodden ground even F-35 which underwent multiple Evals and cost analyses in Canada. In fact the National Fighter Secreteriat in Canada put out the "evaluation of options" (this was the one Saab declined) that got all the info a competition would.

http://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/app-acq/stamgp-lamsmp/snac-nfps-eng.html

http://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/app-acq/stamgp-lamsmp/snacfaq-nfpsfaq-eng.html

We have to go through all the motions. Which is great since I'm not a Canadian taxpayer, and I will enjoy seeing the "ZOMG MUCH EXPENSIVE" F-35 compared to the other aircraft so the light bulb finally switches on that nothing is "cheap" in this business. I want to see comparisons, and I think when they happen the F-35 will look far more attractive instead of being on a lonely island. I want to see what a Rafale costs when you take it out to 42 years (oh boy!!) and how a Gripen NG stays cheap long after Saab quits supporting it.

And I can't wait to see what happens when we figure out there is no savings to be had for the Navy promises, short of drastically cutting the size of the RCAF or not replacing the CF-18s because those are the only "savings" options.

Edited October 29, 2015 by TaiidanTomcat

[riffraff]

Well, at least one person thinks they have a solution for Canada's fighter problem. http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/its-time-for-the-rcaf-to-buy-used-u-s-a-10-warthogs

[CorsairMan]

Do yourself a favour... Don't bother to click....the shitizen is designed to actually make you dumber as you read it.

[sweier]

Do yourself a favour... Don't bother to click....the shitizen is designed to actually make you dumber as you read it.

It clearly already affected the letter writers.

Shane

[Scooby]

Well, at least one person thinks they have a solution for Canada's fighter problem. http://ottawacitizen.com/news/national/defence-watch/its-time-for-the-rcaf-to-buy-used-u-s-a-10-warthogs

To be a journalist you should have to have an ounce of intelligence.

[Scooby]

I sure hope.

I agree that the Super Hornet is the next in line, however its a pretty well established airplane Boeing has built (last I checked) about 6oo Super Hornets and Growlers I would say the production suppliers are pretty well established and not going to Canada. Its a question of what other projects (example AIRLINERS) that Boeing could spin to Canada.

as for JUNK, if the F-35 lives up to the hype, and if it truly is a revolution as a lot of people are saying it is, its a huge change from what was considered "acceptable" previously. If canada lacks that ability, its going to be secondary roles from here until the end. (which seems to be the point of this "no first day" concept in some ways)

It would require a lot of changes in Canada, ordnance for example. That or Canada would have to pay to get the integration with the weapons and systems its currently uses. Rafale is not "plug and play" to the extent the Yankee/(NATO?) jets are. There are fewer than 150 Rafales built right now. they build at the rate of about 2 a month. There are already more F-35s built in fact.

Foriegn sales are far more impressive than the Rafale or Super Hornet. I agree about the cost though. plus I would be shocked to see it picked really, its clearly far too aggressive/first day.

Gripen NG still hasn't flown its first flight. Its engine may be reliable but its tiny: F414 dry thrust = 57.8 kN compared to CF-18 F404 X2 dry thrust= 97.8 kN. As for cost, we shall see. I don't think either production line is going to top 200 units total. Thats bad in terms of learning curves and cost savings.

I don't know what decision Canada will make in the end. However like Dutycat alluded to we do know the competitors at this point. The Gripen NG is the biggest question mark. the rest is very well known, well trodden ground even F-35 which underwent multiple Evals and cost analyses in Canada. In fact the National Fighter Secreteriat in Canada put out the "evaluation of options" (this was the one Saab declined) that got all the info a competition would.

http://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/app-acq/stamgp-lamsmp/snac-nfps-eng.html

http://www.tpsgc-pwgsc.gc.ca/app-acq/stamgp-lamsmp/snacfaq-nfpsfaq-eng.html

We have to go through all the motions. Which is great since I'm not a Canadian taxpayer, and I will enjoy seeing the "ZOMG MUCH EXPENSIVE" F-35 compared to the other aircraft so the light bulb finally switches on that nothing is "cheap" in this business. I want to see comparisons, and I think when they happen the F-35 will look far more attractive instead of being on a lonely island. I want to see what a Rafale costs when you take it out to 42 years (oh boy!!) and how a Gripen NG stays cheap long after Saab quits supporting it.

And I can't wait to see what happens when we figure out there is no savings to be had for the Navy promises, short of drastically cutting the size of the RCAF or not replacing the CF-18s because those are the only "savings" options.

We said, all of it.

I have a few points to add though. Trudeau has said he wants to start the selection process from square one. Boeing has stated the Super Hornet production will be shut down by the time that process is complete, the same is true for the Rafale.

The Liberals will not replace the CF-18. The RCAF will be reduced and downsized.

Our aviation industry will also suffer. This will be the biggest blow to the industry since the Arrow. They were set to earn 9 billion in economic spin-off from the F-35 program.

[11bee]

Our aviation industry will also suffer. This will be the biggest blow to the industry since the Arrow. They were set to earn 9 billion in economic spin-off from the F-35 program.

I would argue that the biggest blow to your aviation industry will be the upcoming cancellation of Bombardier's C-Series regional jet, which will leave just a couple of decades old legacy aircraft in production, neither of which will be around within a few years. The C-Series is years late and out is of money. As a last ditch desperation move, they tried to sell a majority share of the program to Airbus but AB wanted nothing to do with this train wreck either.

With regard to the F-35, I wouldn't assume the worst at this point. Wouldn't be the first time a politician has said something to get elected and then taken another course once in office. Assuming Canada pulls out, has anyone run the numbers to see what this would do the F-35 unit cost?

[Don]

...The Liberals will not replace the CF-18. The RCAF will be reduced and downsized...

That would certainly be sad to see and should cause folks up there to be disconcerted about their national defense. How much life (if any) is left in the Canadian Bugs? Pure guess work here but I would imagine a replacement was needed yesterday and any further feet dragging is only going to potentially put lives at stake for those who operate the Hornets or depend on them. In addition, floundering any longer will only lengthen the time before deliveries of a replacement (should that happen) begins to enter service. Now, if the Cf-18's are indeed not replaced then will Canada just opt out of the fighter business? I mean that would have to be the case as the Hornets cannot keep flying indefinitely.

I swear I remember seeing this movie up there once before as this all sounds so familiar...

SEA KING.

Regards.

[phantom]

Sea King was indeed the same story. Needed replacement back in 1990. The new replacements are STILL not on line. With the party in charge long known as not fans of the military (read new PMs dad) things taint lookn' good.

[Horrido]

I'm having New Zealand flashbacks.

[TaiidanTomcat]

I would argue that the biggest blow to your aviation industry will be the upcoming cancellation of Bombardier's C-Series regional jet, which will leave just a couple of decades old legacy aircraft in production, neither of which will be around within a few years. The C-Series is years late and out is of money. As a last ditch desperation move, they tried to sell a majority share of the program to Airbus but AB wanted nothing to do with this train wreck either.

With regard to the F-35, I wouldn't assume the worst at this point. Wouldn't be the first time a politician has said something to get elected and then taken another course once in office. Assuming Canada pulls out, has anyone run the numbers to see what this would do the F-35 unit cost?

I'm on my mobile so I can't link. Bombardier is planning on asking for a billion dollar bailout for its C series.

The new PM is starting to build an exit for himselF. Canada will say with JSF program until more formal plans can be established in the future, and the new PM says he will now consult with the US President within the next few weeks (gee, I wonder what POTUS will tell him?)

And canada leaving will add 1 million dollars more per jet. This is why I LOL when people think canada won't lose its contracts to the people who are buying the F-35 that they are driving the price up on. There are actually people who think canada can skip buying JSF but get all the Bennies while screwing the program partners.

[Alvis 3.1]

Something like this would be 100% awesome:

The ArrowHog

Well, if I could get GIMP to work better anyhow.

Alvis 3.1

Edited November 2, 2015 by Alvis 3.1

[Sarathi S.]

Oh god, I think I'm going to have nightmares now.

[MarkW]

Lame. No GAU-8.

[TaiidanTomcat]

[MacStingy]

1446496013[/url]' post='2754884']

Something like this would be 100% awesome:

The ArrowHog

Well, if I could get GIMP to work better anyhow.

Alvis 3.1

Kill it before it breeds!!!

[Alvis 3.1]

I just need to add in the F-14 sweep wings, F-35B Lift Fan and the Tweet cockpit section and then it will be the most awesomest plane ever.

Alvis 3.1

[Ken Cartwright]

first aerial test firing of the F-35A gun:

http://www.businessinsider.com/watch-an-f-35-completing-the-fighter-jets-first-ever-aerial-gun-test-2015-11

[Scooby]

That would certainly be sad to see and should cause folks up there to be disconcerted about their national defense. How much life (if any) is left in the Canadian Bugs? Pure guess work here but I would imagine a replacement was needed yesterday and any further feet dragging is only going to potentially put lives at stake for those who operate the Hornets or depend on them. In addition, floundering any longer will only lengthen the time before deliveries of a replacement (should that happen) begins to enter service. Now, if the Cf-18's are indeed not replaced then will Canada just opt out of the fighter business? I mean that would have to be the case as the Hornets cannot keep flying indefinitely.

I swear I remember seeing this movie up there once before as this all sounds so familiar...

SEA KING.

Regards.

I worked on Hornets. They are in sad shape, some of them can't even take a hook anymore. They were originally intended for 2,500 hours. Most are pushing 6,000 hours. We didn't upgrade all our airframes because they weren't in good enough shape to do so.

It is sad that the welfare of our aircrew will be jeapordized by a blind and misguided election promise.

Yes, mirror image of the Sea King.

[Scooby]

I'm on my mobile so I can't link. Bombardier is planning on asking for a billion dollar bailout for its C series.

The new PM is starting to build an exit for himselF. Canada will say with JSF program until more formal plans can be established in the future, and the new PM says he will now consult with the US President within the next few weeks (gee, I wonder what POTUS will tell him?)

And canada leaving will add 1 million dollars more per jet. This is why I LOL when people think canada won't lose its contracts to the people who are buying the F-35 that they are driving the price up on. There are actually people who think canada can skip buying JSF but get all the Bennies while screwing the program partners.

Canada will lose their contracts. All of them.

Most the info is in this document:

http://www.ic.gc.ca/eic/site/ad-ad.nsf/eng/ad03962.html

[11bee]

Canada will lose their contracts. All of them.

As it should be... Maybe that will entice them to rejoin the jamboree?

[Gordon Shumway]

I'm confident that Canada will select a new combat fighter for the RCAF, sooner than later. Which one it may be still remains. IMO if the new government goes more quickly than not it will select Boeing F-18E/F Super Hornets. But even though electioneering drew concerns, I still think after more lobbying by LM that F-35 will be put back on the table. It's going to be one or the other. Our CF-18s will be replaced ably by either.

Canada's government has responsibilities regardless of who is PM. We are a part of NORAD, NATO and the UN. Air, land and sea forces are all able to be expeditionary and not just for our geographical defence. We will get new fighter jets as even though our government has a small voice in international affairs it is one that can be backed up sending AIR, NAVAL and ARMY forces around the world. So manned combat jets are needed if Canada wants to have any relevant voice and role in international affairs. Yes, I know our part is generally small but it is a part and allies including the US Government does like it when Canada comes aboard as our image is often seen as a positive one if not only political. It's easier for our government to commit air assets abroad before or in lieu of army and naval assets.

We have strategic lift and tactical lift. We have a deep blue navy and we are not going to abandon our role in NORAD for geographical air defence and our role in NATO/UN for an ability to have an expeditionary air combat role.

So by the time it's all done the RCAF will likely have Super Hornets or Lightning II's.

[AlienFrogModeller]

They were originally intended for 2,500 hours. Most are pushing 6,000 hours.

Wrong...that was not the original design of the airframe. Think about it...that would equate to only a few years in a normal Unit.

The airframe is originally designed for 8000 airframe hours...

"The USN’s F/A-18 program manager, Capt. Mark Darrah, is quoted as saying that the Hornet fleet is averaging about 330 flight-hours per year, which means they’re consistently about 30% above planned usage. Many have now exceeded even their extended usage figure of 8,000 flight hours. Fortunately, their accident rate remains low."

Ref: http://archive.navytimes.com/article/20110228/NEWS/102280322/The-plan-to-keep-F-A-18s-flying

[Aggressor01]

One of the "perks" of the F-35 is a lot of training is done in the simulator. The pilots can stay current without putting a ton of hours on the airframe for stupid stuff like FAM flights. I know my jet is nearing the end of its airframe's lifespan and will soon be on a stick somewhere. That being said the LRIP aircraft have a much longer lifespan and have been simplified in regards to fastener placement and quantity making it easier to access uncommon areas and return them to LO condition. I pity the bastards who have to insert the 700+ LO dots on one of the backbone panels. But that will simplify the "rivet detail" for us molders. :)

[MarkW]

None of the jets out at Yuma should be low life hour models, so I am a little confused by your statement. They certainly shouldn't be anywhere near the 8000 hour limit at this point, even for training jets.

In practice did LM ever resolve the nut plate issue? The largest problem with some of those panels that had 300 or more captive fasteners was that you couldn't put it back together without breaking a few. The maintenance downtime to repair them was a serious driver in the maintainability and availability arena.